India Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
RBI Set to Hold Rates as Forex Reserves Rise
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 24,383.60 | +0.27% |
| Sensex | 78,094.64 | +0.21% |
| USD/INR | 95.37 | -0.33% |
| EUR/INR | 110.15 | -0.03% |
| Reliance | 1,307.80 | +1.15% |
| HDFC Bank | 748.15 | -0.77% |
| Brent Crude | 90.12 | +1.22% |
| Gold | 4,124.30 | +1.86% |
| Bitcoin | 63,182.86 | +0.67% |
| India Short-term Rate | 5.50% | +0.00% |
| India Long-term Rate | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
India Short-term Rates | Type: macro_line | Short-term Rate %: 5.5 (2026-05-01) | Range: 4.25–6.75 | Trend(5pt): 4.25,6.15,6.75,6.5,5.5
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-08-05) | |||
| RBI Interest Rate Decision | 5.25 | 5.25 | 00:30 |
- RBI expected to hold policy rate at 5.25% on August 5 amid 4.38% CPI
- Forex reserves jump $6.12 billion to $682.35 billion, supporting rupee
- Nifty 50 rises 0.27% to 24,383.60 as Brent crude climbs 1.22%
Yesterday's Recap
Indian equity benchmarks posted modest gains with the Nifty 50 advancing 0.27% to 24,383.60 and the Sensex adding 0.21% to 78,094.64. The rupee strengthened against the dollar, with USD/INR falling 0.33% to 95.37, aided by RBI intervention that limited dollar sales. Brent crude rose 1.22% to $90.12 while gold surged 1.86% to $4,124.30.
No major data releases occurred on August 1. Forex reserves expanded sharply by $6.12 billion to $682.35 billion, providing a buffer against external pressures. Reliance shares gained 1.15% while HDFC Bank declined 0.77%.
The central bank’s FX forward book stood at $103.3 billion after a slight contraction. Banks raised fresh deposit rates in June while lending rates edged higher, reflecting RBI’s recent policy on differential bulk deposit pricing. The government approved an $8.81 billion package to support offshore oil and gas exploration aimed at cutting import reliance.
RBI released the 28th edition of the Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy 2025-26, providing updated macroeconomic series. Trials of plastic notes for ₹10 and ₹20 denominations are advancing to improve durability and reduce counterfeiting.
The Day Ahead
Markets will focus on the RBI’s August 5 interest rate decision, where analysts expect the committee to hold the policy rate at 5.25%. No other high-impact Indian data releases are scheduled for the immediate horizon. Traders will monitor monsoon developments and their potential effect on food inflation.
Global oil price movements remain relevant given India’s import dependence. Liquidity conditions and any updates on bulk deposit rate flexibility will also draw attention. The Maldives launch of Favara-UPI payment service with India highlights expanding digital ties in the region.
Other Economic Notes
The government approved an $8.81 billion package to support offshore oil and gas exploration aimed at cutting import reliance. RBI released the 28th edition of the Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy 2025-26, providing updated macroeconomic series. Trials of plastic notes for ₹10 and ₹20 denominations are advancing to improve durability and reduce counterfeiting.
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