Japan Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PMI Beats, Yields Surge
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 59,585.86 | +0.40% |
| USD/JPY | 159.65 | +0.10% |
| EUR/JPY | 186.49 | -0.10% |
| GBP/JPY | 215.04 | -0.12% |
| Gold | 4,707.00 | -0.54% |
| Brent Crude | 106.51 | +4.51% |
| Bitcoin | 77,889.89 | -0.40% |
| Japan 2Y Govt Yield | 0.73% | +0.00% |
| Japan 10Y Govt Yield | 2.35% | +11.14% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | 44,300m | 1,106,000m | 667,000m |
| Exports Year-over-Year | 4 | 11 | 11.70 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 51.60 | 51.20 | 54.90 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 53.40 | - | 51.20 |
Japan Manufacturing PMI Surge | Type: macro_line | Composite PMI: 40 (2026-02-01) | Range: 29.9–40 | Trend(6pt): 34.4,30.1,35.5,36.2,37.9,40
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.30 | - | 15:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 1.60 | 1.80 | 15:30 |
- Manufacturing PMI surged to 54.9, beating consensus of 51.2 and signaling strong expansion.
- Trade balance at ¥667bn surplus, missing ¥1.106tn consensus but up from ¥44.3bn prior.
- Nikkei up 0.40% to 59,585.86; 10Y JGB yield rose 11.14% to 2.35%.
Yesterday's Recap
Japan's trade balance came in at a ¥667 billion surplus, missing the consensus of ¥1.106 trillion but improving from the previous ¥44.3 billion, driven by exports growing 11.7% year-over-year against an 11% forecast. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flashed at 54.9, far above the 51.2 consensus and prior 51.6, indicating accelerating factory activity. Services PMI softened to 51.2 from 53.4, with no consensus available, pointing to moderating service sector momentum.
The Nikkei 225 advanced 0.40% to 59,585.86, supported by tech and export-oriented stocks amid yen weakness. USD/JPY edged up 0.10% to 159.65, reflecting doubts over BoJ tightening. Japan 10Y government bond yields surged 11.14% to 2.35%, pressuring broader fixed income markets.
EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY dipped slightly by 0.10% and 0.12%, respectively, as safe-haven yen flows waned.
The Day Ahead
Japan's inflation data headlines today's releases, with the year-over-year inflation rate due at 15:30 ET, following a previous 1.3% print but no consensus available. Core inflation year-over-year is expected at 1.8%, up from 1.6%, offering critical insights into price pressures amid BoJ normalization debates. Markets anticipate these figures to influence yen volatility, especially with USD/JPY nearing 160.
No major events are scheduled for tomorrow, shifting focus to potential global spillovers. Traders will monitor any BoJ commentary on inflation trends post-release.
Other Economic Notes
Broader economic themes in Japan highlight a divergence between manufacturing strength and services slowdown, potentially complicating the BoJ's path to policy normalization. Wage growth remains a key watchpoint, with structural hikes needed to sustain inflation above target levels. Fiscal support from the government could amplify export-driven recovery, but geopolitical risks in the Middle East pose threats to energy imports and overall growth.
Global Macro News
Global oil prices surged with Brent crude up 4.51% to $106.51, driven by Middle East tensions including the Hormuz standoff, which could inflate Japan's import costs and pressure inflation. (cont...)
