Korea Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
GDP Surges on Chip Exports
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 6,417.93 | +0.46% |
| KOSDAQ | 1,181.12 | +0.18% |
| USD/KRW | 1,479.94 | -0.39% |
| Samsung | 219,000.00 | +0.69% |
| SK Hynix | 1,199,000.00 | -1.96% |
| Brent Crude | 106.42 | +4.43% |
| Gold | 4,708.80 | -0.50% |
| Bitcoin | 77,897.48 | -0.39% |
| Korea Short-term Rate | 2.53% | -0.55% |
| Korea Long-term Rate | 3.73% | +3.21% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 107 | - | 99.20 |
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Advance Estimate | -0.20 | 1 | 1.70 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Advance Estimate | 1.60 | 2.70 | 3.60 |
Korea Industrial Prod YoY | Type: macro_line | Industrial Prod % YoY: 3.968 (2026-02-01) | Range: -12.45–16.08 | Trend(6pt): 16.08,2.482,3.645,-0.2698,-1.061,3.968
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- South Korea's Q1 GDP grew 1.7% QoQ and 3.6% YoY, beating consensus on booming semiconductor exports.
- KOSPI hit record 6,417.93 with +0.46% gain, driven by tech momentum despite mixed chip stock moves.
- USD/KRW fell 0.39% to 1,479.94 amid won strengthening, while consumer confidence dipped to 99.2.
Yesterday's Recap
South Korea released stronger-than-expected Q1 GDP data, with quarter-over-quarter growth at 1.7% against a consensus of 1% and prior -0.2%, fueled by surging chip exports amid AI demand. Year-over-year GDP advanced 3.6%, exceeding the 2.7% forecast and previous 1.6%, marking the fastest expansion in 5.5 years as semiconductors powered the economy. Consumer confidence index fell sharply to 99.2 from 107.0 prior, signaling potential domestic spending weakness despite export strength.
Markets reacted positively, with KOSPI climbing 0.46% to a historic 6,417.93 close, led by broad gains in export-oriented sectors. KOSDAQ edged up 0.18% to 1,181.12, though SK Hynix dropped 1.96% to 1,199,000 amid profit concerns, while Samsung rose 0.69% to 219,000. USD/KRW declined 0.39% to 1,479.94, reflecting won recovery despite earlier FX deposit drops.
Korea's long-term rate rose 3.21% to 3.73%, contrasting with a 0.55% dip in short-term rate to 2.53%.
The Day Ahead
No major Korean economic releases are scheduled for today, allowing markets to digest yesterday's robust GDP figures and assess implications for Bank of Korea policy. Attention may shift to any unscheduled BoK commentary on currency interventions, given recent won volatility. Tomorrow also lacks key events, potentially leading to quieter trading focused on global cues like oil prices.
Investors will watch for follow-up analysis on Q1 growth drivers, particularly semiconductor exports. Broader sentiment could be influenced by any updates on trade talks, such as energy cooperation with Japan. Overall, the absence of data might sustain momentum from the GDP surprise.
Other Economic Notes
South Korea's economy remains heavily reliant on semiconductor exports, with AI-driven chip demand from firms like Samsung and SK Hynix underpinning the Q1 GDP surge amid global tech recovery. However, weakening consumer confidence and record drops in FX deposits highlight domestic vulnerabilities, including won depreciation pressures. Broader themes include potential fiscal stimulus signals from the government to counter election uncertainties and support growth.
