Korea Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Hawkish BoK Hold Bolsters Won Consolidation
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| KOSPI | 5,550.30 | +0.30% |
| KOSDAQ | 751.69 | -1.62% |
| USD/KRW | 1,325.23 | -0.06% |
| Samsung | 215,500.00 | +0.47% |
| SK Hynix | 1,277,000.00 | +4.42% |
| Brent Crude | 110.27 | -5.53% |
| Gold | 4,031.00 | +0.58% |
| Bitcoin | 79,835.52 | -0.24% |
| Korea 3Y Govt Yield | 3.80% | -4 bp |
| Korea 10Y Govt Yield | 4.10% | -5 bp |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 106.60 | - | 105.40 |
BoK Policy Rate | Type: macro_line | Policy Rate %: 3 (2026-10-08) | Range: 0.75–3.5 | Trend(5pt): 0.75,3.5,3.5,2.5,3
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Advance Estimate | 0.60 | 0.70 | 19:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Advance Estimate | 3.70 | 3 | 19:00 |
| Wednesday (2026-10-28) | |||
| Business Confidence Index | 79 | - | 17:00 |
| Saturday (2026-10-31) | |||
| Exports Year-over-Year | 83.70 | - | 20:00 |
- Consumer confidence fell to 105.4 in October, extending the recent softening trend.
- KOSPI rose 0.30% while the 10-year yield eased 5 bp after the Bank of Korea’s October hold.
- Markets await today’s GDP advance estimates amid hawkish forward guidance from the central bank.
Yesterday's Recap
South Korea’s Consumer Confidence Index printed at 105.4, down from 106.6, reflecting softer household sentiment ahead of the GDP release. Equity markets closed mixed, with the KOSPI advancing 0.30% to 5,550.30 while the KOSDAQ fell 1.62% to 751.69. The won held steady, with USD/KRW easing 0.06% to 1,325.23 despite renewed global risk aversion.
Government bond yields declined, the 3-year yield falling 4 bp to 3.80% and the 10-year yield dropping 5 bp to 4.10%. SK Hynix outperformed sharply, rising 4.42%, while Samsung gained 0.47%. The moves followed the Bank of Korea’s decision to hold the base rate at 3.00% on October 22 with a hawkish tilt that lifted growth and currency forecasts.
Brokerage notes highlighted the divergence between equity weakness and won resilience.
The Day Ahead
The Bank of Korea will release advance GDP estimates for the third quarter at 19:00 today, with consensus pointing to 0.7% quarter-over-quarter and 3.0% year-over-year growth. Market participants will scrutinize the figures for signs of export-driven momentum amid softening domestic demand. On Wednesday, the Business Confidence Index is due at 17:00, providing an early read on fourth-quarter corporate sentiment.
Export data scheduled for October 31 will offer further insight into semiconductor and auto shipments. Traders also monitor any follow-up comments from MPC members ahead of the November 26 policy meeting.
Other Economic Notes
Export-oriented sectors continue to anchor growth even as domestic indicators soften. Corporate loan delinquency at major banks reached the highest level since 2009, raising vigilance over credit quality. North Korea’s growth trajectory drew external attention, with U.S.
analysis suggesting it may exceed South Korea’s official estimates. Valuations in the KOSPI have compressed sharply after the recent tech-led selloff, leaving the benchmark cheaper than regional peers on forward earnings. Policy focus remains on balancing inflation near 2.88% with financial-stability risks from elevated household debt.
