Mexico Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Mexican Confidence Dips Amid Violence
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| IPC Bolsa | 71,405.77 | +0.02% |
| USD/MXN | 17.34 | +0.77% |
| EUR/MXN | 20.29 | -0.05% |
| WTI Crude | 72.68 | +8.45% |
| Silver | 95.54 | +3.09% |
| Gold | 5,410.80 | +3.45% |
| Brent Crude | 79.38 | +9.52% |
| Bitcoin | 65,955.41 | +0.33% |
| Mexico Short-term Rate | 5.63% | -1.23% |
| Mexico Long-term Rate | 9.21% | +0.11% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Business Confidence Index | 48.40 | - | 48.10 |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- Business Confidence Index fell to 48.1 in February from 48.4, reflecting concerns over cartel violence and global tensions.
- IPC Bolsa rose 0.02% to 71,405.77, while USD/MXN climbed 0.77% to 17.34 on risk aversion.
- Oil prices surged, with WTI up 8.45% to 72.68 and Brent up 9.52% to 79.38, amid Middle East conflict.
Yesterday's Recap
Mexico's Business Confidence Index declined to 48.1 in February from 48.4, highlighting worries about domestic cartel violence disrupting economic stability. The IPC Bolsa index ended slightly higher at 71,405.77 with a 0.02% increase, aided by energy stocks as oil prices rose sharply. USD/MXN advanced 0.77% to 17.34, fueled by dollar safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical risks.
EUR/MXN eased 0.05% to 20.29, indicating modest euro strength against the peso. Mexico's short-term rate decreased 1.23% to 5.63%, suggesting softer monetary conditions, while the long-term rate increased 0.11% to 9.21%. Precious metals advanced, with gold rising 3.45% to 5,410.80 and silver up 3.09% to 95.54, supporting Mexican mining companies.
Markets showed caution in response to reports of cartel clashes across states, with the confidence drop as the main data highlight.
The Day Ahead
No significant economic data is due today in Mexico, giving markets time to process yesterday's confidence figures and international events. Focus may turn to US-Mexico trade under USMCA, especially with elevated oil prices potentially enhancing export income. Investors will watch for developments in cartel violence, which could affect nearshoring and foreign direct investment.
With a quiet calendar, peso movements might follow U.S. Treasury yields. Tomorrow also has no key releases, keeping attention on external risks such as Middle East instability.
Other Economic Notes
Cartel violence in areas like Culiacán, Tapalpa, and Puerto Vallarta is harming local economies, with clashes leading to jailbreaks and disruptions that may discourage nearshoring in manufacturing. U.S. firearm trafficking is worsening Mexico's security challenges, potentially straining USMCA supply chains.
Remittances continue to bolster peso resilience, but global risk aversion from Iran-related conflicts could weigh on emerging market investments. Asylum seeker issues in Mexico add to social strains, with evictions and limbo for migrants highlighting border tensions.
