Turkey Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BIST Gains, Gold Surges
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| BIST 100 | 14,061.70 | +0.92% |
| USD/TRY | 43.83 | +0.06% |
| EUR/TRY | 51.61 | -0.51% |
| GBP/TRY | 59.14 | -0.30% |
| Gold (TRY) | 5,184.60 | +2.48% |
| Brent Crude | 71.71 | -0.07% |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | -0.49% |
| Bitcoin | 63,231.00 | -6.55% |
| Turkey 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Turkey 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-02-26) | |||
| Balance of Trade Final | -9,300m | - | 21:00 |
| Friday (2026-02-27) | |||
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 1.10 | - | 21:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 3.70 | - | 21:00 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 7.70 | - | 21:00 |
- BIST 100 rose 0.92% amid recovery hopes, marking strong January performance.
- USD/TRY edged up 0.06%, while EUR/TRY and GBP/TRY weakened slightly.
- Gold in TRY jumped 2.48%, reflecting safe-haven demand.
Yesterday's Recap
Turkish markets showed resilience yesterday with the BIST 100 index climbing 0.92% to 14,061.70, driven by investor optimism following reports of Borsa Istanbul's best January in 29 years, which fueled hopes for a 2026 recovery after a flat 2025. Currency movements remained muted, as USD/TRY ticked up 0.06% to 43.83, signaling stable lira dynamics despite global volatility. EUR/TRY declined 0.51% to 51.61, and GBP/TRY fell 0.30% to 59.14, influenced by eurozone weakness and pound pressures.
Gold priced in TRY surged 2.48% to 5,184.60, benefiting from broader commodity strength and inflation hedging. Brent crude dipped marginally by 0.07% to 71.71, limiting energy-related gains in Turkish equities. No major data releases occurred, but the lack of negative surprises supported sentiment, with Bitcoin's 6.55% drop to 63,231.00 having minimal spillover to local risk assets.
Government bond yields were unavailable, but equity flows suggested easing funding cost expectations.
The Day Ahead
Investors eye the upcoming Balance of Trade Final data on February 25, with previous figures at -9.3 billion, potentially signaling export resilience amid global demand shifts. On February 26, GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter and Year-over-Year releases, previously at 1.1% and 3.7%, will gauge economic momentum and influence CBRT policy bets. Headline Unemployment Rate, last at 7.7%, follows on the same day, offering insights into labor market health post-recovery efforts.
No events are slated for today or tomorrow, allowing markets to digest recent moves. Broader attention turns to Friday's potential volatility from these medium-impact indicators. These releases could shape lira forecasts and equity valuations.
Other Economic Notes
Turkey's external balances face pressure from persistent trade deficits, exacerbated by energy import dependencies, though recent export growth in manufacturing offers some offset. Inflation targeting remains challenged by fiscal expansions, with disinflation trends hinging on tighter monetary controls. Structural reforms in tourism and tech sectors could bolster long-term growth, but geopolitical risks in the region threaten supply chains.
