Turkey Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Lira Steady, BIST Dips Slightly
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| BIST 100 | 14,050.80 | -0.08% |
| USD/TRY | 43.85 | +0.01% |
| EUR/TRY | 51.69 | -0.07% |
| GBP/TRY | 59.26 | +0.10% |
| Gold (TRY) | 5,200.00 | -0.09% |
| Brent Crude | 71.01 | -0.67% |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | -0.01% |
| Bitcoin | 65,472.16 | +1.32% |
| Turkey 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Turkey 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-02-26) | |||
| Balance of Trade Final | -9,300m | - | 02:00 |
| Friday (2026-02-27) | |||
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 1.10 | - | 02:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 3.70 | - | 02:00 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 7.70 | - | 02:00 |
| Tuesday (2026-03-03) | |||
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 4.84 | - | 02:00 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 30.65 | - | 02:00 |
- Turkish markets showed resilience with minor shifts in equities and currencies amid low data flow.
- USD/TRY edged higher, underscoring persistent lira challenges despite interventions.
- Brent crude's decline weighed on sentiment, reflecting global energy dynamics.
Yesterday's Recap
Turkish markets saw limited activity on February 23, 2026, with no significant economic data releases leading to a subdued session. The BIST 100 index closed at 14,050.80, down 0.08%, as cautious investors navigated global uncertainties. The USD/TRY rate rose 0.01% to 43.85, indicating ongoing depreciation pressures despite central bank efforts.
EUR/TRY fell 0.07% to 51.69, while GBP/TRY increased 0.10% to 59.26, driven by mixed European cues. Gold in TRY terms dropped 0.09% to 5,200.00, mirroring safe-haven trends, and Brent crude decreased 0.67% to 71.01, affecting energy stocks. Trading volumes stayed low, with attention turning to forthcoming data on trade and growth.
The Day Ahead
Markets await Turkey's final Balance of Trade data on February 26, with the prior figure at -9.3 billion, possibly indicating export gains from shifting global demand. February 27 brings GDP growth releases, with previous quarter-over-quarter at 1.1% and year-over-year at 3.7%, providing economic momentum clues. The headline unemployment rate, last at 7.7%, will also release that day, shaping labor views.
On March 3, inflation data arrives, with prior monthly at 4.84% and annual at 30.65%, key for disinflation tracking. These could spark volatility in the lira and BIST.
Other Economic Notes
Turkey's trade balances remain strained by high import costs, worsened by energy price swings and supply chain issues. The digital logistics sector's growth projections to $146.92 billion by 2031 highlight opportunities for Turkey to boost trade efficiency via tech adoption. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to pose risks to tourism and investments.
Global Macro News
Escalating Middle East tensions influenced markets, with Trump's $5 billion Gaza aid pledge potentially aiding regional stability but risking spillover effects on Turkey. Brent crude's drop to 71.01 amid supply concerns directly affects Turkey's import costs and inflation. The digital supply chain market's expansion emphasizes tech integration for Turkey's exports.
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