Turkey Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BIST Falls, Lira Dips
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| BIST 100 | 13,809.90 | -1.71% |
| USD/TRY | 43.87 | +0.03% |
| EUR/TRY | 51.89 | +0.46% |
| GBP/TRY | 59.46 | +0.44% |
| Gold (TRY) | 5,210.00 | +1.05% |
| Brent Crude | 70.82 | +0.07% |
| EUR/USD | 1.18 | +0.36% |
| Bitcoin | 68,574.83 | +7.01% |
| Turkey 2Y Govt Yield | - | - |
| Turkey 10Y Govt Yield | - | - |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-02-26) | |||
| Balance of Trade Final | -9,300m | - | 21:00 |
| Friday (2026-02-27) | |||
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter | 1.10 | - | 21:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year | 3.70 | - | 21:00 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 7.70 | - | 21:00 |
- BIST 100 dropped 1.71% amid global risk aversion, while USD/TRY rose marginally by 0.03%.
- Gold in TRY strengthened 1.05%, reflecting safe-haven demand as Brent crude held steady.
- No major data releases yesterday, but markets eye upcoming trade and GDP figures for policy cues.
Yesterday's Recap
Turkish markets closed lower on February 24, with the BIST 100 index declining 1.71% to 13,809.90, driven by profit-taking in export-heavy sectors amid concerns over slowing global demand. The USD/TRY pair inched up 0.03% to 43.87, maintaining stability despite minor outflows from emerging market funds. EUR/TRY and GBP/TRY advanced 0.46% and 0.44% respectively, pressured by a stronger euro amid ECB rate speculation.
Gold priced in TRY climbed 1.05% to 5,210.00, benefiting from haven flows as Bitcoin surged 7.01% globally. Brent crude edged up 0.07% to 70.82, offering limited support to Turkey's energy imports. No economic data was released, allowing markets to digest prior inflation trends, with Turkey's absent 2Y and 10Y govt yields signaling thin trading volumes.
The Day Ahead
Investors anticipate Turkey's final Balance of Trade data for release at 21:00 ET today, with the previous figure at -9.3 billion USD, potentially influencing lira sentiment amid ongoing current account deficits. Tomorrow brings GDP growth figures, both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, following prior readings of 1.1% and 3.7%, which could shape expectations for CBRT's March policy meeting. Headline Unemployment Rate data, last at 7.7%, will also drop tomorrow, offering insights into labor market resilience amid high inflation.
These releases may drive volatility in BIST equities and TRY crosses. Markets will monitor any unscheduled CBRT statements in response to global oil dynamics.
Other Economic Notes
Turkey's external balances remain under pressure from persistent trade deficits, exacerbated by energy import costs despite moderating oil prices. Inflation targeting faces challenges as core pressures linger, with recent data suggesting disinflation but at a slower pace than CBRT projections. Broader growth themes hinge on export competitiveness, with manufacturing sectors showing resilience but vulnerable to eurozone slowdowns.
