UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PMI Slump Fuels UK Economic Worries
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,849.72 | +0.30% |
| FTSE 100 | 9,710.87 | +0.19% |
| UK Natural Gas | 4.99 | +3.20% |
| 2 Year Gilt | 3.73 | -2 bps |
| 10 Year Gilt | 4.44 | +0 bps |
| GBP/USD | 1.335 | +0.12% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.14 | +0.02% |
| GBP/JPY | 206.31 | -0.20% |
| Brent Oil | 62.67 | +0.35% |
| Gold ($) | 4,199.30 | +0.30% |
| Bitcoin ($) | 92,051.09 | -0.06% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Constr PMI | 44.10 | 44.50 | 39.40 |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Halifax House Pr Index m/m | 0.60 | 0.40 | 07:00 |
| Halifax House Pr Index y/y | 1.90 | - | 07:00 |
- S&P Global Construction PMI plunged to 39.4, far below consensus, signaling sharp declines in UK building activity and potential broader slowdown.
- Debate intensifies over UK fuel prices despite falling oil costs, with critics accusing retailers of profiteering amid refinery closures.
- BoE likely to maintain dovish stance, with weak data tilting toward slower rate cuts to avoid exacerbating economic weakness.
Yesterday's Recap
The S&P Global Construction PMI disappointed with a reading of 39.4, well below the consensus of 44.5 and previous 44.1, indicating a steep contraction in UK building activity that surprised markets and underscored inflationary pressures on the sector.
Markets traded calmly, with FTSE 100 edging up 0.19% to 9710.87 amid the absence of major catalysts.
UK Natural Gas surged 3.20%, a larger-than-normal increase driven by European supply concerns and colder weather forecasts boosting demand.
Gilt yields were steady, with 2-year down 2bps to 3.73% and 10-year unchanged at 4.44%, while Sterling moved minimally, GBP/USD up 0.12% to 1.335 and GBP/EUR up 0.02% to 1.14.
The Day Ahead
The Halifax House Price Index for November is due at 07:00, with month-on-month expected at 0.4% and year-on-year at consensus, potentially revealing ongoing housing market resilience or softening trends amid high borrowing costs.
No major UK speeches are scheduled, but markets will watch for any spillover from the data to Gilt yields and Sterling.
Investors will also monitor global cues, including US PCE inflation data, for broader risk sentiment impacts.
Other Economic Notes
UK fuel prices remain elevated despite Brent crude trading around $63 per barrel, sparking accusations of retailer profiteering as refinery closures reduce domestic supply.
The Competition and Markets Authority's upcoming report may clarify operating costs, potentially resolving the transparency debate on pump prices. (cont...)
