UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
UK Data Awaits as Oil Rallies
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,963.74 | -0.19% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,184.35 | +0.46% |
| UK Natural Gas | 3.42 | +0.29% |
| 2 Year Gilt | 3.63 | -3 bps |
| 10 Year Gilt | 4.34 | -5 bps |
| GBP/USD | 1.343 | -0.01% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.15 | +0.06% |
| GBP/JPY | 212.97 | -0.03% |
| Brent Oil | 65.47 | +2.51% |
| Gold ($) | 4,589.20 | -0.33% |
| Bitcoin ($) | 96,490.46 | -0.47% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoE Taylor Speech | - | - | - |
| BoE Ramsden Speech | - | - | - |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP m/m | -0.10 | 0.10 | 07:00 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg | -0.10 | -0.20 | 07:00 |
| Goods Trade Bal | -22.5m | -20.4m | 07:00 |
| Goods Trade Bal Non-EU | -10.3m | - | 07:00 |
| Ind Prod m/m | 1.10 | 0.10 | 07:00 |
| Mfg Production m/m | 0.50 | 0.50 | 07:00 |
- FTSE 100 edged up 0.46% amid BoE speeches, while Gilts yields dipped 3-5bps reflecting steady economic signals.
- Today's GDP data at 07:00 could reveal UK growth trends, with consensus at 0.1% m/m versus -0.1% prior.
- BoE maintains a neutral stance, pricing in further cuts if inflation cools, despite global climate risks pressuring energy markets.
Yesterday's Recap
BoE Governor Taylor delivered a speech focusing on monetary policy dynamics, while Deputy Governor Ramsden addressed financial stability risks.
Markets showed mixed activity, with FTSE 100 closing at 10184.35, a modest 0.46% gain driven by banking sector resilience.
Gilt yields fell 3-5bps, with 2-year at 3.63% and 10-year at 4.34%, signaling expectations of stable BoE rates.
Brent oil surged 2.51% to 65.47, an unusually large move fueled by Iran unrest fears before easing on Trump's assurances of halting executions.
GBP traded flat against USD at 1.343 and EUR at 1.15, while gold dipped 0.33% to 4589.20 amid reduced safe-haven demand.
Bitcoin declined 0.47% to 96490.46, reflecting broader crypto caution.
The Day Ahead
UK GDP m/m at 07:00 is eyed closely, with consensus at 0.1% versus -0.1% prior, potentially signaling recovery in Q4 growth.
GDP 3-month average at 07:00 expected at -0.2%, offering insights into economic momentum.
Goods trade balance at 07:00 forecasted at -204B versus -225.4B, highlighting export pressures.
Industrial production m/m at 07:00 consensus 0.1% versus 1.1% prior, while manufacturing production at 0.5% mirrors expectations.
No major BoE speeches scheduled, but data could influence MPC voting ahead of February meetings.
Other Economic Notes
UK inflation trends remain subdued, with recent data supporting gradual easing. (cont...)
