UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
UK Growth Surges, Trade Worsens
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,926.60 | -0.53% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,238.94 | +0.54% |
| UK Natural Gas | 3.12 | -8.75% |
| 2 Year Gilt | 3.67 | +4 bps |
| 10 Year Gilt | 4.39 | +4 bps |
| GBP/USD | 1.338 | +0.05% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.15 | +0.01% |
| GBP/JPY | 211.95 | -0.12% |
| Brent Oil | 66.52 | +1.60% |
| Gold ($) | 4,626.30 | +0.81% |
| Bitcoin ($) | 95,628.43 | +0.05% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RICS House Pr Bal | -14 | -16 | -14 |
| GDP m/m | -0.10 | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg | 0 | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| Goods Trade Bal | -24.2m | -20.4m | -23.7m |
| Goods Trade Bal Non-EU | -11.8m | - | -11.5m |
| Ind Prod m/m | 1.30 | 0.10 | 1.10 |
| Mfg Production m/m | 0.40 | 0.50 | 2.10 |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- UK GDP expanded 0.3% m/m, beating expectations and signaling robust economic momentum.
- Industrial and manufacturing production rose sharply, outpacing forecasts amid manufacturing revival.
- Sterling edged higher on data strength, while global oil gains reflected supply tensions.
Yesterday's Recap
UK GDP rose 0.3% month-on-month, surpassing the 0.1% consensus and previous -0.1%, driven by services and construction strength, boosting growth outlook.
Industrial production increased 1.1%, beating 0.1% expectations, while manufacturing output surged 2.1% versus 0.5% forecast, indicating manufacturing rebound.
The goods trade balance deteriorated to -£23.71B, worse than -£20.4B expected, as imports rose faster than exports.
RICS house price balance held at -14, matching consensus but below previous -16, suggesting stabilizing housing sentiment.
FTSE 100 edged up 0.54% to 10238.94, a calm session with limited volatility.
Gilt yields ticked up 4bps across maturities, reflecting mild rate sensitivity.
Sterling was steady, with GBP/USD at 1.338 and GBP/EUR at 1.15, amid balanced global flows.
Brent oil rose 1.60% to 66.52, above normal amid supply concerns.
Gold gained 0.81% to 4626.30, supported by safe-haven demand.
UK natural gas dropped 8.75%, a larger-than-normal decline on weather-driven oversupply.
The Day Ahead
No major UK economic data releases scheduled today, allowing focus on global cues and potential BoE commentary.
Markets may react to upcoming US Fed minutes and European GDP updates, influencing risk sentiment.
Watch for any BoE MPC speeches that could clarify rate path amid recent growth data.
Other Economic Notes
Retail spending remains resilient despite inflationary pressures, supporting short-term growth.
Brexit trade impacts linger, with non-EU balances worsening, pressuring exporters. (cont...)
