| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,926.60 | -0.53% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,238.94 | +0.54% |
| UK Natural Gas | 3.12 | -8.75% |
| 2 Year Gilt | 3.67 | +4 bps |
| 10 Year Gilt | 4.39 | +4 bps |
| GBP/USD | 1.338 | +0.05% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.15 | +0.01% |
| GBP/JPY | 211.95 | -0.12% |
| Brent Oil | 66.52 | +1.60% |
| Gold ($) | 4,626.30 | +0.81% |
| Bitcoin ($) | 95,628.43 | +0.05% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RICS House Pr Bal | -14 | -16 | -14 |
| GDP m/m | -0.10 | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg | 0 | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| Goods Trade Bal | -24.2m | -20.4m | -23.7m |
| Goods Trade Bal Non-EU | -11.8m | - | -11.5m |
| Ind Prod m/m | 1.30 | 0.10 | 1.10 |
| Mfg Production m/m | 0.40 | 0.50 | 2.10 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
UK GDP rose 0.3% month-on-month, surpassing the 0.1% consensus and previous -0.1%, driven by services and construction strength, boosting growth outlook. Industrial production increased 1.1%, beating 0.1% expectations, while manufacturing output surged 2.1% versus 0.5% forecast, indicating manufacturing rebound. The goods trade balance deteriorated to -£23.71B, worse than -£20.4B expected, as imports rose faster than exports. RICS house price balance held at -14, matching consensus but below previous -16, suggesting stabilizing housing sentiment. FTSE 100 edged up 0.54% to 10238.94, a calm session with limited volatility. Gilt yields ticked up 4bps across maturities, reflecting mild rate sensitivity. Sterling was steady, with GBP/USD at 1.338 and GBP/EUR at 1.15, amid balanced global flows. Brent oil rose 1.60% to 66.52, above normal amid supply concerns. Gold gained 0.81% to 4626.30, supported by safe-haven demand. UK natural gas dropped 8.75%, a larger-than-normal decline on weather-driven oversupply.
No major UK economic data releases scheduled today, allowing focus on global cues and potential BoE commentary. Markets may react to upcoming US Fed minutes and European GDP updates, influencing risk sentiment. Watch for any BoE MPC speeches that could clarify rate path amid recent growth data.
Retail spending remains resilient despite inflationary pressures, supporting short-term growth. Brexit trade impacts linger, with non-EU balances worsening, pressuring exporters. (cont...)
Energy costs are moderating, aiding household budgets and industrial competitiveness.
China's record $1.2T trade surplus is fueling private overseas investments, shifting liquidity and risking yuan volatility that could affect global FX. US stocks rallied on AI optimism and earnings strength, with S&P 500 up despite initial declines, broadening leadership beyond tech. India's trade deficit widened to $25B, pressured by US tariffs and imports, diverting focus to alternative markets like China. Oil steadied after easing Iran tensions, with Brent supported by Venezuela's resumed exports under US oversight. Venezuelan crude now fetches 30% higher prices via US sales, potentially alleviating supply overhang. Global crypto slipped on stalled US legislation, with Bitcoin at $95,628, as regulatory uncertainty weighs. European innovation in AI and rare earths highlights supply chain shifts, impacting commodity demand.
In the rate-cutting cycle, recent GDP beats and production surges suggest fewer cuts ahead, tilting hawkish on growth resilience. MPC may favor slower easing, with markets pricing fewer 2025 reductions amid moderating inflation. Governor Bailey could emphasize data dependence, cautioning against premature rate moves. Voting patterns show consensus on gradual adjustments, avoiding dissent.