| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,940.01 | 0.00% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,126.78 | -0.67% |
| UK Natural Gas | 3.10 | 0.00% |
| 2 Year Gilt | 3.68 | +0 bps |
| 10 Year Gilt | 4.46 | +4 bps |
| GBP/USD | 1.344 | +0.03% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.15 | +0.03% |
| GBP/JPY | 212.52 | -0.01% |
| Brent Oil | 64.13 | 0.00% |
| Gold ($) | 4,588.40 | 0.00% |
| Bitcoin ($) | 89,746.31 | +1.62% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Unemp Rate | 5.10 | 5 | 5.10 |
| Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) | 4.80 | 4.60 | 4.70 |
| Employ Change | -16,000 | 27,000 | 82,000 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate y/y | 3.20 | 3.30 | 07:00 |
| Core Inflation Rate y/y | 3.20 | 3.20 | 07:00 |
| Inflation Rate m/m | -0.20 | 0.40 | 07:00 |
| CBI Business Optimism Index | -31 | - | 11:00 |
| CBI Industrial Trends Orders | -32 | -33 | 11:00 |
| BoE Woods Speech | - | - | 14:15 |
| CBI Distributive Trades | -44 | -35 | 11:00 |
UK unemployment held steady at 5.1% in the three months to November, matching consensus and reflecting persistent labor market slack. Average earnings growth edged up to 4.7% from previous 4.8%, narrowly beating the 4.6% forecast but signaling moderating wage pressures. Employment change surged to 82,000, far exceeding the 27,000 consensus, driven by public sector gains offsetting private sector weakness. Markets traded calmly overall, with FTSE 100 down 0.67% to 10,126.78 amid broader European declines. Gilts yields rose modestly, with 10-year up 4bps to 4.46%, while GBP/USD ticked up 0.03% to 1.344.
UK inflation rate y/y at 07:00 is expected at 3.3%, with m/m at 0.4%, closely watched for signs of persistent price pressures. Core inflation y/y at 07:00 may hold at 3.2%, influencing BoE outlook on rate cuts. CBI business optimism at 11:00 is forecast at consensus, while industrial trends orders at 11:00 may show -33, gauging manufacturing sentiment. BoE's Woods speech at 14:15 could clarify policy stance amid labor data beats.
Private sector wage growth has dropped to a five-year low at 3.6%, dampening consumer spending amid elevated costs. Unemployment expectations rose to 5.3% by end-year, reflecting weaker hiring and rising staffing expenses.
European leaders plan retaliatory measures, including tariffs on US goods, potentially disrupting global trade and elevating UK inflation risks. China's population decline and falling cement demand signal slowing growth, reducing commodity pressures but highlighting broader Asian economic headwinds. US withdrawal from 66 international agencies undermines multilateralism, complicating global governance and indirectly affecting UK-EU relations.
In the cutting cycle, stronger-than-expected employment data supports fewer cuts in 2025, tilting hawkish on pace. MPC may emphasize data dependence, favoring slower easing as wage moderation curbs inflation risks. Markets price fewer cuts, reflecting confidence in labor resilience over aggressive policy shifts.