| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,875.62 | +1.16% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,150.05 | +0.12% |
| UK Natural Gas | 4.88 | +24.78% |
| 2 Year Gilt | 3.67 | -2 bps |
| 10 Year Gilt | 4.47 | +1 bps |
| GBP/USD | 1.349 | -0.05% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.15 | -0.01% |
| GBP/JPY | 214.06 | +0.10% |
| Brent Oil | 65.24 | +0.49% |
| Gold ($) | 4,831.80 | +1.52% |
| Bitcoin ($) | 89,361.67 | -0.11% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBI Distributive Trades | -44 | -35 | -17 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales m/m | -0.10 | -0.10 | 07:00 |
| Retail Sales y/y | 0.60 | 1 | 07:00 |
| S&P Global Mfg PMI Flash | 50.60 | 50.70 | 09:30 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 51.40 | 51.70 | 09:30 |
| BoE Greene Speech | - | - | 09:30 |
CBI Distributive Trades survey rose to -17 from -44, surpassing the -35 consensus and indicating stronger retail confidence amid easing inflationary pressures. UK markets traded calmly, with FTSE 100 edging up 0.12% to 10150.05 as investors digested the data. Gilt yields saw minor shifts, with 2-year down 2bps to 3.67% and 10-year up 1bps to 4.47%, reflecting steady demand for gilts. Sterling held firm, with GBP/USD slipping 0.05% to 1.349 and GBP/EUR down 0.01% to 1.15. Commodities performed modestly, with Brent oil rising 0.49% to 65.24 and gold surging 1.52% to 4831.80 on safe-haven demand. No BoE speeches occurred, leaving focus on upcoming MPC communications.
Retail Sales m/m at 07:00 is expected at -0.1%, matching prior and y/y at 1%, up from 0.6%, to reveal consumer spending trends. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash at 09:30, consensus 50.7, may edge up from 50.6, signaling factory activity resilience. Services PMI Flash at 09:30, forecast at 51.7 versus 51.4, will test service sector strength. BoE Greene Speech at 09:30 could clarify views on inflation and rate cut timing amid data flows.
UK housing market dynamics remain subdued, with ongoing price pressures from energy costs. Labor market slack persists, as wage moderation curbs consumer confidence. (cont...)
Brexit-related trade adjustments continue to influence export competitiveness.
European leaders at Davos emphasized unity against US economic weaponization, potentially straining transatlantic ties and UK export demand. China's savings-driven economy faces deflation risks, with falling prices encouraging consumption but pressuring global commodity markets. US intervention in Cuba, following Venezuela, signals heightened geopolitical instability, boosting gold and safe-haven assets worldwide. Blackstone CEO highlighted India's growth potential, attracting FDI and supporting global equity optimism.
In the cutting cycle, the CBI beat suggests cautious rate reductions, tilting hawkish on pace to avoid overheating. Greene's speech may stress data dependence, favoring fewer cuts if inflation stabilizes. Markets price fewer 2025 cuts, reflecting MPC's balanced approach amid resilient data. Voting patterns remain split, with potential dissent on acceleration.