| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,913.35 | +0.55% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,143.44 | -0.07% |
| UK Natural Gas | 5.05 | +3.49% |
| 2 Year Gilt | 3.74 | +0 bps |
| 10 Year Gilt | 4.53 | +0 bps |
| GBP/USD | 1.367 | +0.20% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.15 | -0.10% |
| GBP/JPY | 210.73 | -0.82% |
| Brent Oil | 64.06 | -1.81% |
| Gold ($) | 4,908.80 | +1.59% |
| Bitcoin ($) | 87,811.68 | +1.44% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
UK CPI ticked up to 3.4% YoY in December, exceeding the 3.2% consensus and marking a first rise in five months, driven by higher housing costs. Retail sales climbed 0.4% MoM, surpassing expectations for a decline and underscoring robust consumer spending despite tariff fears. Manufacturing and services PMI data indicated continued expansion, reinforcing economic momentum and supporting Sterling's modest 0.2% gain against the USD. FTSE 100 edged down 0.07% to 10,143.44, reflecting cautious trading amid mixed global cues, while Gilt yields held steady. Commodities saw Brent oil dip 1.81% to 64.06, while gold rallied 1.59% to 4,908.80 on safe-haven flows.
No major UK economic releases are scheduled for today, allowing focus on weekend news digestion. Markets will monitor for any BoE commentary, though no speeches are confirmed. Global events, including US earnings and Fed policy signals, may influence Sterling and UK equities.
UK housing prices remain under pressure from higher borrowing costs, with Nationwide data showing flat YoY growth. Labour market slack persists, with unemployment at 5.1%, tempering wage inflation risks. Brexit-related trade frictions continue to weigh on export volumes, offsetting domestic demand strength.
US Q3 GDP was revised up to 4.4%, signaling robust momentum and potentially delaying Fed cuts amid elevated inflation. China's uneven growth, with Q4 GDP at 4.5%, underscores slowing demand for commodities, easing UK energy import pressures. European tensions over Greenland tariffs strained markets, boosting safe-haven assets like gold and complicating UK-EU trade relations. Japan's yen rout stabilized after intervention threats, highlighting currency volatility risks for global investors. India's silver demand surge reflects industrial shifts, potentially influencing precious metals prices and UK inflation dynamics.
In the cutting cycle, the CPI uptick supports slower rate cuts to ensure inflation sustainably nears 2%. Recent data beats in retail and PMI tilt hawkish, favoring fewer cuts in 2025. Markets price 3 cuts by year-end, down from prior expectations, reflecting MPC caution. Governor Bailey may stress data dependence in any upcoming remarks.