| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,964.82 | +0.47% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,353.84 | -0.31% |
| UK Natural Gas | 3.14 | -8.30% |
| 2 Year Gilt | 3.65 | +3 bps |
| 10 Year Gilt | 4.52 | -1 bps |
| GBP/USD | 1.367 | +0.21% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.15 | +0.01% |
| GBP/JPY | 209.21 | -0.65% |
| Brent Oil | 69.04 | +1.45% |
| Gold ($) | 5,050.90 | +2.01% |
| Bitcoin ($) | 67,064.55 | -2.52% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y | 1 | 1.20 | 2.30 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoE Talbot Speech | - | - | 11:00 |
| RICS House Pr Bal | -14 | -11 | 00:01 |
| GDP Growth q/q Prel | 0.10 | 0.20 | 07:00 |
| GDP Growth y/y Prel | 1.30 | 1.20 | 07:00 |
| GDP m/m | 0.30 | 0.10 | 07:00 |
| Bus Invest q/q Prel | 1.50 | 0.40 | 07:00 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.10 | 0.20 | 07:00 |
| Goods Trade Bal | -23.7m | -22.7m | 07:00 |
| Goods Trade Bal Non-EU | -11.5m | - | 07:00 |
| Ind Prod m/m | 1.10 | 0 | 07:00 |
UK retail sales beat consensus expectations with a 2.3% year-on-year rise, driven by stronger-than-expected consumer demand. BoE speeches were absent, leaving markets focused on data-driven narratives. FTSE 100 dipped 0.31% to 10353.84, reflecting profit-taking amid calm trading. Gilt yields edged lower, with the 10-year at 4.52% and 2-year at 3.65%, as cut expectations held. Sterling firmed 0.21% to 1.367 against the dollar, buoyed by retail data.
Investors eye preliminary GDP data at 7:00am, with consensus growth at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter potentially signaling economic resilience. RICS House Price Balance at 00:01am may reveal housing market trends. BoE Deputy Governor Talbot's speech at 11:00am could clarify rate cut pacing.
Labour market dynamics show potential weakening, with unemployment risks rising if growth slows. Housing prices remain elevated, supporting consumer wealth effects. Brexit impacts linger on trade balances, constraining export growth.
Oil prices rose 1.45% to 69.04, supported by supply concerns despite sanctions easing. Bitcoin fell 2.52% to 67064.55, hitting fear levels last seen in 2022 bear markets.
In the cutting cycle, recent retail data supports fewer cuts, emphasizing data dependence to avoid growth overheating. Markets price 3-4 cuts in 2025, dovish on inflation cooling. MPC voting patterns show consensus, with potential pauses if surprises emerge.