| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,941.47 | -0.00% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,402.44 | -0.67% |
| UK Natural Gas | 3.16 | +1.41% |
| 2 Year Gilt | 3.60 | -1 bps |
| 10 Year Gilt | 4.46 | -2 bps |
| GBP/USD | 1.360 | -0.18% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.15 | -0.08% |
| GBP/JPY | 208.37 | +0.18% |
| Brent Oil | 69.40 | +0.87% |
| Gold ($) | 5,071.60 | +1.35% |
| Bitcoin ($) | 66,030.89 | -0.27% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RICS House Pr Bal | -13 | -11 | -10 |
| GDP Growth q/q Prel | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| GDP Growth y/y Prel | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1 |
| GDP m/m | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Bus Invest q/q Prel | 1.60 | 0.40 | -2.70 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg | -0.10 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| Goods Trade Bal | -23.6m | -22.7m | -22.7m |
| Goods Trade Bal Non-EU | -11.3m | - | -11.0m |
| Ind Prod m/m | 1.30 | 0 | -0.90 |
| Mfg Production m/m | 2.10 | 0 | -0.50 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
UK GDP q/q growth came in at 0.1%, missing consensus of 0.2%, while y/y growth slowed to 1.0% from expected 1.2%, reflecting broader economic softness. Business investment plunged 2.7% q/q, far below forecasts of 0.4%, exacerbating concerns over production capacity. Industrial production dropped 0.9% m/m and manufacturing fell 0.5% m/m, both worse than expected, highlighting manufacturing weakness. Gilts yields edged lower by 1-2 bps, while sterling dipped 0.18% against the dollar as investors digested the disappointing data.
No major UK data scheduled, but markets will monitor US CPI at 1330 GMT, expected at 0.3% m/m core, for clues on Fed rate paths. BoE Governor Bailey may comment on policy in European forums, potentially clarifying views on UK inflation trends. Focus shifts to European PMI releases next week, which could gauge recovery pace in the eurozone.
UK housing market signals stabilization with RICS balance improving to -10, though broader trade deficits widened. Brexit-related trade frictions persist, pressuring non-EU goods balance despite global commodity demand. Energy costs remain elevated, supporting natural gas prices up 1.41% amid supply concerns.
Asian markets declined, with Japan's Nikkei down 1.2% following tech sell-offs, reflecting AI disruption fears impacting global equities. China's marine economy expansion boosts green growth, potentially increasing demand for UK exports in renewable sectors. Global tech IPOs, like SoftBank's PayPay, highlight fintech momentum, though regulatory scrutiny in South Korea tempers enthusiasm. India's AI overhaul in services aims to compete with UK tech hubs, while Trump's tariff shifts ease some trade tensions for emerging markets. European ECB stability supports UK export prospects, but weak EU growth may constrain demand.
In the cutting cycle, recent GDP and investment misses tilt toward more cuts, with markets pricing three reductions by year-end. MPC likely favors faster pace if data confirms slowdown, though Governor Bailey may stress data dependence. Unanimous voting in prior meetings, but dissent could emerge if inflation surprises persist.