| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,836.17 | 0.00% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,556.17 | +0.79% |
| UK Natural Gas | 3.24 | 0.00% |
| 2 Year Gilt | 3.60 | +1 bps |
| 10 Year Gilt | 4.38 | -1 bps |
| GBP/USD | 1.356 | -0.03% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.14 | +0.03% |
| GBP/JPY | 208.01 | +0.06% |
| Brent Oil | 67.75 | 0.00% |
| Gold ($) | 5,022.00 | 0.00% |
| Bitcoin ($) | 67,831.86 | +0.54% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Unemp Rate | 5.10 | 5.10 | 5.20 |
| Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) | 4.60 | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| Employ Change | 82,000 | - | 52,000 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate y/y | 3.40 | 3 | 07:00 |
| Core Inflation Rate y/y | 3.20 | 3.10 | 07:00 |
| Inflation Rate m/m | 0.40 | -0.50 | 07:00 |
| CBI Industrial Trends Orders | -30 | -28 | 11:00 |
UK unemployment rose to 5.2%, exceeding the 5.1% consensus and marking a five-year high, driven by deteriorating economic confidence and service sector vulnerabilities. Average earnings including bonus slipped to 4.2% from 4.6%, missing forecasts and highlighting wage stagnation amid regulatory burdens. Employment change added 52,000 jobs, down from 82,000 previously, underscoring a lag in labor adjustments following investment slowdowns. FTSE 100 gained 0.79% to 10556.17, a modest advance amid profit-taking in banking and energy sectors. Gilt yields moved slightly, with 2-year up 1bps to 3.60% and 10-year down 1bps to 4.38%, reflecting cautious BoE cut expectations. GBP/USD fell 0.03% to 1.356, while GBP/EUR rose 0.03% to 1.14, with Brent oil steady at 67.75 and gold unchanged at 5022.00.
UK inflation data at 07:00 releases core and headline rates, expected at 3.1% y/y and 3% y/y respectively, versus 3.2% and 3.4% prior, with m/m at -0.5% against 0.4%. Core inflation m/m at 07:00 may guide BoE policy, as markets watch for signs of easing that could accelerate cuts. CBI Industrial Trends Orders at 11:00, consensus -28 versus -30 previous, will assess manufacturing sentiment.
UK services PMI has been weakening, correlating with rising unemployment and consumer demand erosion. Brexit impacts persist, with trade deficits widening and investment hesitancy amid regulatory uncertainty. (cont...)
Housing market shows signs of stress, with Nationwide prices up but affordability challenges mounting.
Christine Lagarde announced early ECB exit ahead of French elections, introducing uncertainty in Eurozone policy and potentially slowing EU growth. JPMorgan plans 160 new branches in the US, signaling retail banking revival but highlighting domestic saturation. US-Iran nuclear talks progressed, easing oil prices and reducing Brent's risk premium to $67.75. China's Lunar New Year travel surge, with 9.5 billion trips predicted, boosts experiences economy despite retail sales growth at just 0.9%. India's trade deals aim to counter US tariffs, but past FTAs show deficits, underscoring competitiveness gaps. RBNZ held rates at 2.25%, dovish on easing, diverging from Fed caution. Iran's Strait closure for drills added volatility, though talks mitigate broader disruptions.
In the rate cutting cycle, rising unemployment and weak earnings support more cuts, but MPC may favor slower pace amid data dependence. Markets price 3 cuts by year-end, down from 4, reflecting hawkish tilt on labor signals. No speeches yesterday, but upcoming data could shift tone toward faster easing if inflation cools further. MPC voting history shows caution, with potential for dissenting views on cut magnitude.