| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,881.31 | +0.56% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,627.04 | -0.55% |
| UK Natural Gas | 3.01 | -0.66% |
| 2 Year Gilt | 3.57 | -1 bps |
| 10 Year Gilt | 4.37 | +0 bps |
| GBP/USD | 1.345 | -0.09% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.14 | +0.03% |
| GBP/JPY | 208.71 | -0.01% |
| Brent Oil | 70.35 | +4.35% |
| Gold ($) | 4,986.50 | +2.12% |
| Bitcoin ($) | 67,699.10 | +1.09% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBI Industrial Trends Orders | -30 | -28 | -28 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales m/m | 0.40 | 0.20 | 02:00 |
| Retail Sales y/y | 2.50 | 2.80 | 02:00 |
| S&P Global Mfg PMI Flash | 51.80 | 51.50 | 04:30 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 54 | 53.50 | 04:30 |
| Tuesday (2026-02-24) | |||
| CBI Distributive Trades | -17 | - | 06:00 |
| Friday (2026-02-27) | |||
| GFK Consumer Confidence Index | -16 | - | 19:01 |
| Nationwide Housing Prices m/m | 0.30 | - | 02:00 |
| Nationwide Housing Prices y/y | 1 | - | 02:00 |
UK industrial orders from CBI met consensus at -28, indicating flat business activity in a weak economic backdrop. FTSE 100 fell 0.55% to 10,627.04, pressured by energy sector volatility. Gilt yields were steady, with 2-year down 1 bps to 3.57% and 10-year unchanged at 4.37%. Sterling dipped 0.09% against USD to 1.345 but gained 0.03% versus EUR. Commodities rallied, with Brent oil up 4.35% to $70.35 and gold 2.12% to $4,986.50, driven by geopolitical fears.
Retail sales data at 02:00 is expected at 0.2% m/m versus previous 0.4%, with y/y at 2.8% versus 2.5%, potentially revealing consumer weakness. S&P Global PMI flashes at 04:30 may show manufacturing at 51.5 versus 51.8 and services at 53.5 versus 54.0, influencing BoE growth views. CBI distributive trades survey at 06:00 lacks consensus, but could signal retail sentiment shifts.
UK housing prices rose 3.2% YoY per Nationwide, supporting labor market resilience. Brexit impacts persist in trade flows, with EU relations under scrutiny. Energy costs remain elevated, pressuring inflation despite gas prices dipping 0.66%.
Indonesia signed a trade deal with the US, eliminating tariffs on 99% of goods, signaling regional trade shifts amid Trump's tariffs on China. China faces US business outflows, with midsize firms cutting payments to China by 20% in 2025, boosting imports from Vietnam and India. India's AI investments, including Reliance's $110B pledge, aim to secure supply chains but heighten global tech competition. European ECB policies remain cautious amid weak growth, potentially dampening UK export demand. Asian markets dipped on private credit worries and oil volatility, while crypto like Bitcoin ticked up 1.09% to $67,699 amid sideways trading.
In a rate-cutting cycle, recent weak industrial orders support more/faster cuts to bolster growth. However, the oil surge poses hawkish inflation risks, reducing cut urgency and aligning with a 7-2 MPC hawkish tilt. Markets price fewer cuts, reflecting resilient labor data and geopolitical pressures. Governor Bailey may reiterate data dependence in speeches, delaying the easing pace.