| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,284.80 | -1.24% |
| FTSE 250 | 22,098.10 | -1.79% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | +1.01% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.16 | +0.13% |
| GBP/JPY | 211.81 | +0.52% |
| Brent Crude | 92.28 | -0.44% |
| Gold | 5,182.80 | +0.71% |
| UK Nat Gas | 3.10 | -2.57% |
| Bitcoin | 69,964.52 | +6.06% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.45% | -0.70% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year | 2.30 | 2.40 | 0.70 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-03-11) | |||
| RICS House Price Balance | -10 | -9 | 16:01 |
| Thursday (2026-03-12) | |||
| BoE Gov Bailey Speech | - | - | 01:30 |
| Friday (2026-03-13) | |||
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.20 | 23:00 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.10 | 0.20 | 23:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -22,720m | -22,200m | 23:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | -10,990m | - | 23:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.90 | 0.20 | 23:00 |
Yesterday's BRC Retail Sales Monitor for February reported 0.7% YoY growth, falling short of the 2.4% consensus and 2.3% previous, underscoring weakening consumer demand amid high inflation and energy costs. This disappointment pressured UK stocks, with the FTSE 100 down 1.24% at 10,284.80, hit by declines in retail and energy-exposed sectors amid global volatility. The FTSE 250 dropped 1.79% to 22,098.10, reflecting broader slowdown concerns for mid-caps.Sterling gained against the dollar, with GBP/USD up 1.01% to 1.34 on US currency weakness following risk events, while GBP/EUR rose 0.13% to 1.16. GBP/JPY increased 0.52% to 211.81. UK Natural Gas fell 2.57% to 3.10, providing minor relief despite Middle East issues, but Brent Crude edged down 0.44% to 92.28 on supply worries.Gold advanced 0.71% to 5,182.80 as a safe haven, and Bitcoin surged 6.06% to 69,964.52. The UK 10Y Gilt yield declined 0.70% to 4.45%, suggesting expectations of BoE caution. The data highlighted UK growth risks, with no other major releases to counterbalance.
Tomorrow features the RICS House Price Balance for February, forecasted at -9% against prior -10%, gauging housing sector strength under elevated rates. Thursday includes a BoE Governor Bailey speech, which may touch on inflation from energy disruptions and rate outlook. Friday delivers key data: GDP Month-over-Month expected at 0.2% (prior 0.1%), GDP 3-Month Average at 0.2% (prior 0.1%), Goods Trade Balance at -22.2 billion (prior -22.7 billion), Goods Trade Balance Non-EU with no consensus (prior -10.99 billion), Industrial Production Month-over-Month at 0.2% (prior -0.9%), and Manufacturing Production Month-over-Month at 0.2% (prior -0.5%).These could influence sterling and gilts, particularly if they indicate recovery or further softness, amid Bailey's potential signals on policy.
UK unemployment stood at 5.10% as of October 2025, suggesting labor market cooling that could temper wage growth but hinder overall expansion. CPI YoY was 3.40% through March 2025, exceeding the BoE's 2% goal and challenging rate cut prospects amid shocks. (cont...)
Key themes involve energy exposure, with oil fluctuations risking renewed inflation and household strain. Recent jobs surveys note a less gloomy market pre-Middle East escalation, though global events now cloud the outlook.
Middle East tensions escalated with Iran naming Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader after his father's death, amid Israeli strikes on Iranian regime infrastructure. Oil prices surged past $100-$110 per barrel as the conflict widened, with US ordering staff evacuations from Saudi Arabia and reports of missile/drone attacks wounding dozens in Bahrain and affecting Gulf states like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. Israel was accused of unlawfully using white phosphorus in Lebanon.These developments heighten UK energy import risks, potentially lifting inflation via higher crude and natural gas costs. China's foreign minister condemned the war and called for US ties management, adding to trade uncertainties impacting UK exports. Ukraine conflict, on day 1,473, continues pressuring European energy, indirectly affecting UK markets.EU diplomats plan Middle East talks, while payment sovereignty concerns contrast with UK's digital pound delays. UK jobs market showed signs of stabilizing pre-war, but AI hype in HR discussions remains tangential. Overall, risk-off mood supports gold and pressures FTSE, with de-escalation hopes eyed.
The Bank of England held its Bank Rate at 3.73% in the latest decision as of March 5, 2026, adopting a cautious approach to persistent inflation and external risks. Officials express concern over potential energy shocks, likely reviewing data like GDP and production before the next meeting. Policy remains data-dependent, aimed at returning CPI to 2% without fixed timelines, muting cut expectations.Quantitative tightening proceeds, contributing to gilt volatility. Upside inflation risks from oil spikes suggest rates may remain elevated. This stance bolsters sterling in some pairs but limits equity gains amid growth worries.Bailey's speech could affirm this caution, especially after soft retail figures.