| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,412.20 | +1.59% |
| FTSE 250 | 22,381.30 | -0.49% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | -0.37% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.16 | +0.20% |
| GBP/JPY | 212.70 | +0.26% |
| Brent Crude | 95.47 | +3.79% |
| Gold | 5,161.50 | -0.11% |
| UK Nat Gas | 3.28 | +2.06% |
| Bitcoin | 69,444.23 | -0.69% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.45% | -0.70% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RICS House Price Balance | -10 | -9 | -12 |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoE Gov Bailey Speech | - | - | 05:30 |
| Friday (2026-03-13) | |||
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.20 | 03:00 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.10 | 0.30 | 03:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -22,720m | -22,200m | 03:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | -10,990m | - | 03:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.90 | 0.20 | 03:00 |
| Manufacturing Production Month-over-Month | -0.50 | 0.20 | 03:00 |
| Thursday (2026-03-19) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 5.20 | - | 03:00 |
Yesterday's RICS House Price Balance for February came in at -12, missing consensus of -9 and down from January's -10, underscoring ongoing UK housing softness due to high interest rates and affordability issues. This pressured property-linked stocks, aiding the FTSE 250's 0.49% drop to 22,381.30, as mid-caps with UK focus struggled. Conversely, the FTSE 100 gained 1.59% to 10,412.20, lifted by energy firms as Brent Crude jumped 3.79% to 95.47 amid Middle East tensions.Sterling was uneven: GBP/USD fell 0.37% to 1.34 on USD strength from US data, while GBP/EUR rose 0.20% to 1.16 due to eurozone lags. GBP/JPY increased 0.26% to 212.70 amid yen fluctuations. UK 10Y Gilt yields declined 0.70% to 4.45%, reflecting safe-haven flows, and gold edged down 0.11% to 5,161.50.Markets absorbed the housing data calmly, with energy upsides countering local weaknesses.
Today includes a high-impact BoE Governor Bailey speech at 05:30 ET, with focus on inflation views and rate signals given sticky UK CPI at 3.40% YoY. Tomorrow's releases feature GDP Month-over-Month at expected 0.2% (prior 0.1%), 3-Month Avg at 0.3% (prior 0.1%), signaling potential growth pickup. Industrial Production Month-over-Month is forecast at 0.2% (prior -0.9%), and Manufacturing Production at 0.2% (prior -0.5%), key for BoE's economic assessment.Goods Trade Balance is eyed at -22.2 billion (prior -22.72 billion), with Non-EU lacking consensus, highlighting trade amid global strains. Next week, March 19 labor data includes Headline Unemployment Rate (prior 5.10%), Average Earnings incl. Bonus (prior 4.2%), and Employment Change (prior 52,000).The BoE Interest Rate Decision follows, with prior rate at 3.73% and no consensus; prior MPC votes were 4 for cut, 0 for hike, 5 unchanged.
UK growth appears resilient yet patchy, with verified CPI YoY at 3.40% exceeding the BoE's 2% target, straining households and possibly postponing rate easing. Unemployment at 5.10% indicates a robust labor market, fueling wages but risking services inflation. (cont...)
Housing weakness from RICS data, paired with high gilt yields, curbs spending, while energy swings heighten living costs. Post-Budget fiscal space is tight due to debt, limiting support options.
Middle East tensions dominate, with a container ship damaged by an unknown projectile off UAE, raising supply fears that drove Brent up 3.79%. Oil prices fluctuate as IEA mulls historic reserve release to offset war disruptions, potentially aiding UK energy costs but risking stagflation. Investors eye 1970s-style stagflation from Iran conflict, with commodity surges threatening growth amid 3.40% CPI.Gulf states favor restraint to avoid escalation, but involvement could lift UK Nat Gas, up 2.06% to 3.28. Europe's bonds recovered on energy dips, supporting UK gilts' 0.70% yield fall. Leaders prepare economic shields against war shocks, influencing UK policy.UK halted a London rally tied to pro-Iran groups, linking domestic security to geopolitics and possibly weighing on sterling.
BoE stresses inflation vigilance, holding the verified Bank Rate at 3.73% last meeting, with data-driven guidance amid persistent pressures. Bailey's speech today may address MPC's prior report on wage and services risks, indicating no quick cuts despite growth softness. QT proceeds to normalize, signaling higher rates longer, as seen in 4.45% 10Y Gilt yields.Prior decision had votes of 4 for cut, 0 for hike, 5 unchanged, focusing on global factors like energy that keep CPI at 3.40% above target. This suggests sustained gilt pressure and sterling volatility, with FTSE potentially gaining on dovish hints. March 19 decision depends on GDP and jobs data, with markets expecting policy steadiness.