UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Weak Jobs Boost BoE Cut Odds
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,261.15 | -0.43% |
| FTSE 250 | 22,071.10 | -0.44% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | -0.76% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.16 | +0.00% |
| GBP/JPY | 211.14 | -0.67% |
| Brent Crude | 99.86 | -3.18% |
| Gold | 5,020.40 | -0.64% |
| UK Nat Gas | 3.11 | -0.57% |
| Bitcoin | 74,193.48 | +4.18% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.45% | -0.70% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
BoE Rate vs 3-Month Interbank | Type: macro_line | BoE Policy Rate: 3.729 (2026-03-11) | Range: 0.045–5.2 | Trend(6pt): 0.0494,1.19,5.185,4.7,3.729,3.729 | 3M Interbank Rate: 3.71 (2026-01-01) | Range: 0.07–5.53 | Trend(6pt): 0.09,1.57,5.53,4.75,3.75,3.71
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday (2026-03-17) | |||
| BoE Evans Speech | - | - | 03:30 |
| Thursday (2026-03-19) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 5.20 | 5.20 | 23:00 |
| Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) | 4.20 | 3.90 | 23:00 |
| Employment Change | 52,000 | - | 23:00 |
| BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 04:00 |
| BoE MPC Vote Cut | 4 | - | 04:00 |
| BoE MPC Vote Hike | 0 | - | 04:00 |
| BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 5 | - | 04:00 |
- UK markets dipped on global risk-off mood, FTSE indices down over 0.4%, GBP/USD off 0.76%.
- BoE rate decision ahead amid CPI at 3.40% YoY, unemployment at 5.10%.
- News flags economy's weak start to 2026, lifting bets for March rate cut.
Yesterday's Recap
UK markets ended lower on March 15 amid global risk aversion, with the FTSE 100 down 0.43% at 10,261.15, pressured by energy sector weakness as Brent Crude fell 3.18% to 99.86. The FTSE 250 slipped 0.44% to 22,071.10, hit by domestic growth worries in mid-caps. Sterling weakened versus the dollar, GBP/USD dropping 0.76% to 1.33, while GBP/EUR stayed flat at 1.16 and GBP/JPY declined 0.67% to 211.14.
UK 10-year Gilt yields fell 0.70% to 4.45%, indicating safe-haven flows. No key UK data was released, but prior soft jobs figures, including unemployment at 5.10%, fueled caution. Gold eased 0.64% to 5,020.40, and UK Natural Gas dipped 0.57% to 3.11, reflecting weaker commodity appetite.
Bitcoin bucked the trend, up 4.18% to 74,193.48.
The Day Ahead
Tomorrow, March 17, features a high-impact BoE Evans speech at 03:30 ET, potentially signaling policy views. On March 18 at 23:00 ET, labor releases include headline unemployment rate (consensus 5.2% vs previous 5.2%), average earnings incl. bonus (3.9% vs 4.2%), and employment change (no consensus vs 52,000 prior).
March 19 brings the BoE rate decision at 04:00 ET, with consensus to hold at 3.73% (previous aligns with current 3.73%), plus MPC votes on cuts (previous 4), hikes (previous 0), unchanged (previous 5), and meeting minutes. On March 20 at 03:00 ET, CBI Industrial Trends Orders are due (consensus -29 vs -28), gauging manufacturing outlook.
Other Economic Notes
UK economy faces headwinds from sticky wages despite CPI cooling to 3.40% YoY, challenging BoE normalization. Early 2026 shows stalled growth and soft jobs, with unemployment at 5.10%, raising recession odds and easing calls. Fiscal uncertainties, like green subsidy tweaks, weigh on deficits and investment.
Global Macro News
Middle East strains, including Netanyahu's expansionist remarks and repatriation of 84 Iranian sailors after a US torpedo incident, heighten oil volatility, risking UK inflation via imports. Deutsche Bank's warning on US commercial real estate risks could ripple to global banks, affecting UK financials. (cont...)
