| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 9,918.33 | -1.44% |
| FTSE 250 | 21,341.97 | -1.01% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | -0.92% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.15 | -0.55% |
| GBP/JPY | 212.25 | +0.11% |
| Brent Crude | 107.36 | -4.31% |
| Gold | 4,324.00 | -5.39% |
| UK Nat Gas | 3.10 | +0.23% |
| Bitcoin | 68,845.61 | +0.20% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.43% | -0.42% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday (2026-03-24) | |||
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 51.70 | 51.10 | 01:30 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 53.90 | 53 | 01:30 |
| CBI Distributive Trades | -43 | -40 | 03:00 |
| BoE Pill Speech | - | - | 05:30 |
| Wednesday (2026-03-25) | |||
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3 | 3 | 23:00 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.10 | 3.10 | 23:00 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.50 | - | 23:00 |
| Thursday (2026-03-26) | |||
UK markets tumbled yesterday amid heightened fears from the Iran-US-Israel conflict, with the FTSE 100 closing at 9,918.33 after a 1.44% drop, driven by losses in energy and banking sectors. The FTSE 250 declined 1.01% to 21,341.97, reflecting broader risk aversion among mid-caps exposed to global trade. Sterling depreciated notably, with GBP/USD falling 0.92% to 1.33 and GBP/EUR down 0.55% to 1.15, while GBP/JPY edged up 0.11% to 212.25 on safe-haven yen flows.Brent crude plunged 4.31% to 107.36, pressured by demand worries despite supply risks from Gulf attacks. Gold slumped 5.39% to 4,324.00 as investors rotated out of havens, and UK natural gas rose modestly by 0.23% to 3.10. Bitcoin gained 0.20% to 68,845.61.The UK 10Y Gilt yield fell 0.42% to 4.43%, signaling flight to safety amid no major data releases. Overall, the absence of UK-specific events amplified global macro spillovers, with confidence ebbing as evidenced by the FTSE dipping below 10,000.
Tomorrow brings high-impact S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash at 01:30 ET, expected at 51.1 versus prior 51.7, alongside Services PMI Flash at the same time, forecasted at 53 from 53.9, both critical for gauging early Q2 momentum. CBI Distributive Trades follows at 03:00 ET, anticipated at -40 from -43, offering insights into retail sector health amid inflation pressures. BoE's Pill is scheduled to speak at 05:30 ET, potentially clarifying policy amid war-driven energy shocks.Looking further, Wednesday's inflation data at 23:00 ET includes YoY rate expected at 3% from 3%, core at 3.1% unchanged, and MoM without consensus. Thursday features BoE Taylor's speech at 08:00 ET and GFK Consumer Confidence at 16:01 ET, projected at -24 from -19. Friday's retail sales at 23:00 ET are eyed for MoM at -0.4% from 1.8%, highlighting consumer resilience.
Broader UK themes center on persistent inflation risks from geopolitical unrest, with verified CPI YoY at 3.40% as of March 2025 underscoring sticky prices despite cooling trends. Unemployment stands at 5.20% per November 2025 data, signaling labor market slack that could temper wage growth but heighten recession fears. Fiscal hints of infrastructure spending clash with gilt supply concerns, potentially pressuring yields higher amid elevated energy costs.
Escalating Iran-US-Israel tensions, including attacks on UAE and Diego Garcia, have prompted over 115,000 British nationals to flee the Gulf, raising UK exposure to regional instability and energy disruptions. Iran's Supreme Leader emphasized unity amid the conflict, while reports of targeted UK bases amplify supply chain risks for British firms. Oil price volatility, with Brent down yesterday but fears of surges, directly feeds into UK inflation via higher import costs, as noted in BoE concerns.Global fallout includes United Airlines cutting flights due to fuel fears, indirectly hitting UK aviation and tourism sectors. A UK-Nigeria port deal worth £746m faces scrutiny for transparency, potentially boosting trade but stirring domestic political debate. French supercomputer project shifts to the US, highlighting competitive pressures on UK tech amid broader capital flight.Philippine warnings of food supply disruptions from prolonged war underscore global commodity risks affecting UK imports. Overall, these dynamics tilt UK risks downward, with energy shocks countering any domestic recovery.
The Bank of England recently held the Bank Rate at 3.73% as of March 18, 2026, emphasizing a data-dependent approach amid rising inflation concerns from the Iran war energy shock. Forward guidance stresses caution on easing, with officials highlighting persistent services inflation and wage rigidity as barriers to cuts, aligning with statements on maintaining rates despite weak jobs data. Quantitative tightening continues apace, with no shifts signaled in recent communications, aiming to normalize the balance sheet while monitoring market stability.MPC decisions reflect a hawkish tilt, as seen in holding rates amid war-related inflation fears, to combat imported inflation from oil surges. Governor's rhetoric calls for straight talking on the economy grinding higher but with downside risks, positioning the BoE as an outlier among central banks post-energy shock. This stance implies markets should brace for prolonged higher rates if war escalates.Overall, communications underscore no imminent easing, supporting higher gilt yields and pressuring sterling.