UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Mixed PMIs, Steady Inflation
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,106.84 | +1.42% |
| FTSE 250 | 21,296.10 | -0.84% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | -0.18% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.16 | +0.01% |
| GBP/JPY | 212.96 | -0.01% |
| Brent Crude | 101.22 | -6.29% |
| Gold | 4,458.10 | +1.89% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.95 | -1.73% |
| Bitcoin | 68,580.44 | -3.83% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.43% | -0.42% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 51.70 | 50.10 | 51.40 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 53.90 | 53 | 51.20 |
| CBI Distributive Trades | -43 | -40 | -52 |
| BoE Pill Speech | - | - | - |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | -0.50 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| BoE Taylor Speech | - | - | - |
| GFK Consumer Confidence Index | -19 | -24 | - |
UK Manufacturing Confidence | Type: macro_line | Confidence Index: -13.16 (2026-02-01) | Range: -27.23–26.47 | Trend(6pt): 7.508,10.48,-9.548,-9.908,-11.9,-13.16
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 1.80 | -0.70 | 23:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 4.50 | 2.10 | 23:00 |
- UK flash PMIs mixed: manufacturing at 51.4 beat consensus of 50.1, but services fell to 51.2 vs 53 expected, signaling uneven growth.
- Headline CPI steady at 3% YoY matching forecasts, core up to 3.2% from 3.1%, monthly at 0.4% as anticipated, highlighting persistent pressures.
- FTSE 100 up 1.42% to 10,106.84 on risk appetite, FTSE 250 down 0.84% to 21,296.10; gilt yields eased to 4.43%.
Yesterday's Recap
UK flash PMIs showed mixed results, with manufacturing PMI at 51.4 exceeding consensus of 50.1 (prior 51.7), indicating resilience, while services PMI dropped to 51.2 against 53 expected (prior 53.9), pointing to sector slowdowns. Headline inflation held at 3% YoY, aligning with consensus and prior, while core inflation rose slightly to 3.2% from 3.1% consensus, and monthly inflation met 0.4% expectations (prior -0.5%). CBI Distributive Trades worsened to -52, below -40 consensus (prior -43), reflecting retail weakness from energy costs.
BoE Chief Economist Pill's speech stressed data-dependent policy without new shifts, and Taylor's later remarks highlighted inflation risks. Markets responded positively, with FTSE 100 gaining 1.42% to 10,106.84 on energy and banking strength, though FTSE 250 fell 0.84% to 21,296.10. Sterling softened, GBP/USD down 0.18% to 1.33, GBP/EUR up 0.01% to 1.16, GBP/JPY down 0.01% to 212.96.
UK 10Y gilt yield dropped 0.42% to 4.43%. Brent crude plunged 6.29% to 101.22, gold rose 1.89% to 4,458.10, Bitcoin fell 3.83% to 68,580.44. GFK Consumer Confidence actual data was unavailable, but sentiment appeared pessimistic amid war concerns.
The Day Ahead
Today's key release is retail sales, with MoM expected at -0.7% after 1.8% prior, and YoY at 2.1% vs 4.5% prior, potentially indicating consumer slowdown from inflation. Weak data could weigh on sterling and influence BoE rate expectations. No BoE speeches are scheduled, leaving markets to process recent PMIs and CPI.
Attention may turn to global energy dynamics after Brent's drop, and any gilt market moves. With light UK calendar, focus shifts to international spillovers like US data or Middle East tensions.
Other Economic Notes
UK economy faces persistent inflation, with verified CPI at 3.40% YoY as of March 2025, exacerbated by energy volatility and geopolitical risks. Unemployment at 5.20% as of November 2025 supports wage pressures, complicating BoE easing. Government hints at fiscal measures, such as tourist levies for museums and green infrastructure funding, may add inflationary risks.
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