UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Sterling Gains as Oil Prices Tumble
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,176.50 | +0.48% |
| FTSE 250 | 21,642.30 | -0.21% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | +1.50% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.15 | +0.20% |
| GBP/JPY | 211.32 | +0.30% |
| Brent Crude | 93.85 | -14.11% |
| Gold | 4,861.00 | +4.38% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.74 | -4.56% |
| Bitcoin | 71,729.73 | +4.17% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.43% | -0.42% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Halifax House Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.10 | - |
| Halifax House Price Index Year-over-Year | 1.30 | 1.50 | - |
UK 10Y Gilt Yield | Type: macro_line | Yield %: 4.432 (2026-02-01) | Range: 0.644–4.689 | Trend(6pt): 0.9058,2.145,4.42,4.416,4.451,4.432
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Construction PMI | 44.50 | 43.90 | 00:30 |
| RICS House Price Balance | -12 | -18 | 15:01 |
- Halifax house prices showed flat MoM at 0.0% vs consensus 0.1%, signaling ongoing housing market weakness amid high rates.
- FTSE 100 rose 0.48% to 10,176.50 on global risk-on mood, while GBP/USD climbed 1.50% to 1.34 after oil slump.
- Brent crude fell 14.11% to 93.85 on US-Iran cease-fire, easing UK import costs but hitting energy stocks.
Yesterday's Recap
UK Halifax House Price Index for March showed a flat month-over-month reading of 0.0%, missing the consensus of 0.1% and down from February's 0.3%, highlighting persistent affordability pressures in the housing sector. The year-over-year figure came in at 1.4%, slightly below the expected 1.5% but above the prior 1.3%, reinforcing concerns over a cooling property market amid elevated borrowing costs. FTSE 100 advanced 0.48% to close at 10,176.50, driven by gains in financials offsetting losses in miners, while FTSE 250 dipped 0.21% to 21,642.30 on mixed mid-cap performance.
Sterling strengthened notably, with GBP/USD up 1.50% to 1.34, GBP/EUR rising 0.20% to 1.15, and GBP/JPY gaining 0.30% to 211.32, supported by improved risk sentiment from global developments. Brent crude's sharp 14.11% decline to 93.85 weighed on UK natural gas, down 4.56% to 2.74, but gold rallied 4.38% to 4,861.00 as a safe-haven play. Bitcoin rose 4.17% to 71,729.73.
Gilt yields eased, with the 10-year at 4.43% after a 0.42% drop, reflecting bets on softer inflation from energy relief. Markets reacted positively to geopolitical de-escalation, though domestic data underscored economic fragility.
The Day Ahead
Focus shifts to S&P Global Construction PMI at 00:30 ET, with consensus at 43.9 from 44.5, potentially indicating further sector contraction due to high costs and weak demand. Later, RICS House Price Balance at 15:01 ET is expected at -18, down from -12, which may heighten housing affordability worries. No Bank of England speeches are scheduled, so markets will parse data for rate cues.
Global oil dynamics could influence UK inflation views. Sterling and gilts may see volatility based on PMI results, with risks if construction softens more.
Other Economic Notes
The UK economy risks stagflation, with growth stalling even before geopolitical tensions, as City AM warns of inflation and weak productivity impacts. Labour market pressures continue, with UK unemployment at 5.20% as of November 2025, curbing investment and retail. Energy transition efforts, like new battery storage financing, may aid infrastructure long-term but provide little short-term relief amid high rates.
