UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
UK Jobs Beat, Inflation Meets
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,498.10 | -1.05% |
| FTSE 250 | 22,971.70 | +0.14% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.11% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.15 | +0.19% |
| GBP/JPY | 215.17 | +0.11% |
| Brent Crude | 92.40 | -6.17% |
| Gold | 4,786.80 | +1.88% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.71 | +0.52% |
| Bitcoin | 78,060.02 | +2.24% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.70% | +6.05% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 5.20 | 5.20 | 4.90 |
| Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) | 4.10 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| Employment Change | 84,000 | - | 25,000 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.70 |
UK Long-Term Yields | Type: macro_line | 10Y Gilt Yield (%): 4.701 (2026-03-01) | Range: 0.644–4.701 | Trend(6pt): 0.9058,2.145,4.42,4.416,4.451,4.701
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-04-23) | |||
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 51 | 49.90 | 00:30 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 50.50 | 50 | 00:30 |
| CBI Business Optimism Index | -19 | - | 02:00 |
| CBI Industrial Trends Orders | -27 | -30 | 02:00 |
| GFK Consumer Confidence Index | -21 | -25 | 15:01 |
| Friday (2026-04-24) | |||
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | -0.40 | 0.20 | 22:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 2.50 | 1.30 | 22:00 |
- UK unemployment fell to 4.9% vs 5.2% expected, with earnings at 3.8% beating consensus, signaling labor resilience.
- Headline inflation hit 3.3% YoY as forecast, core eased to 3.1%, but MoM rose 0.7% above expectations.
- FTSE 100 down 1.05% on Brent's 6.17% drop, gilt yields up amid Iran war volatility.
Yesterday's Recap
UK data on April 21 delivered mixed signals. Headline inflation rose to 3.3% YoY, matching consensus but up from 3.0% prior, fueled by 0.7% MoM growth exceeding the 0.6% forecast. Core inflation dipped to 3.1% YoY, below 3.2% expected, hinting at moderating pressures.
Labor stats from April 20 surprised positively: unemployment dropped to 4.9% against 5.2% consensus, employment change was 25,000 vs prior 84,000, and average earnings incl. bonuses grew 3.8% 3Mo/Yr, topping 3.6% forecast but down from 4.1%. Markets responded tepidly; FTSE 100 fell 1.05% to 10,498.10, pressured by energy amid Brent crude's 6.17% decline to 92.40.
FTSE 250 rose 0.14% to 22,971.70 on domestic strength. GBP/USD eased 0.11% to 1.35, GBP/EUR gained 0.19% to 1.15, GBP/JPY up 0.11% to 215.17. UK 10Y gilt yield climbed 6.05% to 4.70%, reflecting inflation worries tied to Iran conflict, as per GB News.
The Day Ahead
Key releases on April 23 include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash at 00:30, consensus 49.9 vs 51.0 prior, risking contraction signal. Services PMI at same time, expected 50.0 from 50.5, vital for sector outlook amid energy disruptions. CBI Business Optimism at 02:00, no consensus, prior -19; CBI Industrial Trends Orders at 02:00, forecast -30 from -27, gauging manufacturing mood.
GFK Consumer Confidence at 15:01, consensus -25 from -21, potentially showing war pessimism. On April 24, retail sales MoM at 22:00, expected 0.2% from -0.4%; YoY at 1.3% from 2.5%, key for consumer spending amid cost pressures.
Other Economic Notes
UK faces ongoing inflation from Iran war, boosting fuel costs and disrupting supply chains, as GB News reports note 3.3% CPI rise. Wage growth slowed pre-conflict, per FT, challenging BoE on balancing jobs and prices. Chancellor Reeves warns of £16bn borrowing surge due to war, per GB News, stressing fiscal caution.
Economy grew faster than expected before conflict, per AOL.com, but now risks severe hits. Danske Bank forecasts GBP/EUR at 1.1240 in six months, per Exchange Rates UK, amid volatility.
