UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
FTSE Dips, BoE Holds Steady
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,233.10 | -0.43% |
| FTSE 250 | 22,849.40 | -0.15% |
| GBP/USD | 1.36 | +0.22% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.16 | +0.01% |
| GBP/JPY | 212.58 | -0.05% |
| Brent Crude | 105.42 | +4.08% |
| Gold | 4,665.80 | -1.16% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.80 | +1.70% |
| Bitcoin | 80,805.27 | +0.17% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.70% | +6.05% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
UK 10Y Gilt Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield %: 4.701 (2026-03-01) | Range: 0.644–4.701 | Trend(6pt): 0.8549,2.328,4.569,4.434,4.432,4.701
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year | 3.10 | 0.80 | 19:01 |
| Wednesday (2026-05-13) | |||
| RICS House Price Balance | -23 | -25 | 19:01 |
| Thursday (2026-05-14) | |||
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.10 | 0.60 | 02:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary | 1 | - | 02:00 |
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.50 | -0.20 | 02:00 |
| Business Investment Quarter-over-Quarter Prel | -2.50 | 1.10 | 02:00 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.50 | - | 02:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -18,790m | -20,100m | 02:00 |
- FTSE indices edged lower amid mixed global signals, with Brent crude surging 4.08% on geopolitical tensions.
- Sterling strengthened slightly against USD and EUR, while UK 10Y Gilt yields rose 6.05% reflecting inflation concerns.
- BoE maintains rates at 3.73%, signaling caution on growth data amid election fallout and global uncertainty.
Yesterday's Recap
UK markets saw modest declines on May 10, with the FTSE 100 closing at 10,233.10 after a 0.43% drop, driven by profit-taking in energy stocks despite Brent crude's 4.08% rally to $105.42. The FTSE 250 dipped 0.15% to 22,849.40, supported by domestic cyclicals. Sterling gained 0.22% against the USD to 1.36 and 0.01% versus the EUR to 1.16, while GBP/JPY slipped 0.05% to 212.58 amid yen strength.
UK natural gas prices rose 1.70% to 2.80, reflecting supply worries, and gold fell 1.16% to 4,665.80 as safe-haven demand waned. No major data releases occurred, but sentiment was influenced by headlines on Labour's local election losses, including 200 seats lost, contributing to cautious trading. Gilt markets reacted with the 10Y yield climbing to 4.70%, up 6.05%, on expectations of persistent inflation pressures.
Overall, volumes were light, with Bitcoin edging up 0.17% to 80,805.27, providing little directional cue for UK assets.
The Day Ahead
Today's key release is the BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY at 19:01 ET, with consensus at 0.8% versus prior 3.1%, potentially signaling cooling consumer spending amid high borrowing costs. On Wednesday, the RICS House Price Balance arrives at 19:01 ET, expected at -25 from -23, highlighting ongoing housing market weakness. Thursday brings a data-heavy slate, including preliminary Q1 GDP QoQ at 0.6% consensus (prior 0.1%), YoY GDP with no consensus (prior 1%), and monthly GDP at -0.2% expected (prior 0.5%).
Additional Thursday figures include Business Investment QoQ at 1.1% consensus (prior -2.5%), 3-Month Avg GDP with no consensus (prior 0.5%), Goods Trade Balance at -20.1 billion consensus (prior -18.79 billion), Goods Trade Balance Non-EU with no consensus (prior -7.1 billion), Industrial Production MoM at -0.3% (prior 0.5%), and Manufacturing Production MoM at -0.2% (prior -0.1%). These releases may shape BoE rate expectations, especially with current unemployment at 5.20%.
Other Economic Notes
The UK economy faces headwinds from stalled growth, with NatWest raising alarms over job losses as activity slows, compounded by doubts from the BoE on official rosy GDP figures. <i>↓ p.2</i>
