UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Retail Tanks, Yields Spike
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,269.40 | +0.35% |
| FTSE 250 | 22,466.20 | -1.50% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.41% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.15 | -0.07% |
| GBP/JPY | 213.89 | +0.31% |
| Brent Crude | 106.26 | -1.40% |
| Gold | 4,705.80 | +0.60% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.83 | -0.53% |
| Bitcoin | 81,004.12 | -0.89% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.70% | +6.05% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year | 3.10 | 0.80 | -3.40 |
UK 10Y Gilt Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield %: 4.701 (2026-03-01) | Range: 0.644–4.701 | Trend(6pt): 0.8549,2.328,4.569,4.434,4.432,4.701
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-05-13) | |||
| RICS House Price Balance | -23 | -25 | 19:01 |
| Thursday (2026-05-14) | |||
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.10 | 0.60 | 02:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary | 1 | 0.80 | 02:00 |
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.50 | -0.20 | 02:00 |
| Business Investment Quarter-over-Quarter Prel | -2.50 | 1.10 | 02:00 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.50 | 0.60 | 02:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -18,790m | -20,100m | 02:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | -7,100m | - | 02:00 |
- BRC retail sales YoY plunges to -3.4% vs 0.8% exp, prior 3.1%, signaling consumer weakness
- FTSE mixed: 100 +0.35% at 10,269.40; 250 -1.50% at 22,466.20; 10Y gilt yield to 4.70% +6bps
- Sterling slips: GBP/USD -0.41% at 1.35; GDP prelims Thu, unemp Tue
Yesterday's Recap
UK BRC retail sales monitor for April printed at -3.4% YoY, far below consensus 0.8% and prior 3.1%, highlighting sharp consumer spending pullback amid cost pressures. FTSE 100 edged up 0.35% to 10,269.40, buoyed by energy, while FTSE 250 fell 1.50% to 22,466.20 on mid-cap retail drags. Sterling weakened: GBP/USD down 0.41% to 1.35, GBP/EUR -0.07% to 1.15, GBP/JPY +0.31% to 213.89.
UK 10Y gilt yield climbed +6bps to 4.70%, reflecting reduced easing bets post-retail miss. Brent crude dropped 1.40% to 106.26, pressuring energy; gold gained 0.60% to 4,705.80 on safe-haven flows. UK nat gas eased 0.53% to 2.83; Bitcoin -0.89% to 81,004.12.
The Day Ahead
Tomorrow (Wed May 13, 19:01 ET): RICS house price balance (exp. -25 vs prior -23), early housing sentiment gauge. Thu May 14 (02:00 ET) high-impact Q1 GDP prelims: QoQ exp.
0.6% (prior 0.1%), YoY 0.8% (prior 1%), MoM -0.2% (prior 0.5%); plus business investment QoQ exp. 1.1% (prior -2.5%), GDP 3M avg 0.6% (0.5%), goods trade bal -£20.1bn (-£18.8bn), industrial prod MoM -0.4% (0.5%), manuf prod -0.2% (-0.1%). Tue May 19 (02:00 ET): headline unemp rate (prior 4.9%, cons.
-), avg earnings +3Mo/Yr (prior 3.8%), employment change (prior 25k). Consensus flags contraction risks; weak prints could spur gilt selling, sterling drop. BoE holds Bank Rate at 3.73%.
Other Economic Notes
LSE analysis links empty high streets to populist Reform UK gains in England, as retail decline hits local economies. BRC slump underscores consumer caution despite CPI at 3.40% YoY (Mar 2025). Unemployment at 5.20% (Nov 2025), with wage pressures complicating BoE path.
London man convicted of antisemitic attacks highlights social tensions amid economic strain.
Global Macro News
BoC rate decision and Monetary Policy Report today 09:45 ET, Business Outlook Survey 11:30 ET, Market Participants Survey 10:30 ET, Summary of Deliberations 13:30 ET. Steady rate expected; dovish signals could weaken CAD, lift GBP/CAD. BoE's Greene waits on Iran war evolution before backing hikes, as tensions stoke inflation risks.
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