UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Housing Slumps, GDP Looms
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,325.40 | +0.59% |
| FTSE 250 | 22,528.40 | +0.28% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.06% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.15 | +0.07% |
| GBP/JPY | 213.51 | +0.05% |
| Brent Crude | 105.16 | -0.44% |
| Gold | 4,704.00 | +0.13% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.88 | +0.49% |
| Bitcoin | 79,788.39 | +0.64% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.70% | +6.05% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| RICS House Price Balance | -25 | -25 | -34 |
FTSE 100 Index | Type: market_hloc | FTSE 100: 1.033e+04 (2026-05-13) | Range: 9894–1.091e+04 | Trend(5pt): 1.047e+04,1.025e+04,1.013e+04,1.048e+04,1.033e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.20 | 0.60 | 02:00 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary | 1 | 0.80 | 02:00 |
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.40 | -0.20 | 02:00 |
| Business Investment Quarter-over-Quarter Prel | -2.90 | 1.10 | 02:00 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.50 | 0.60 | 02:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -22,800m | -20,000m | 02:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | -10,944m | - | 02:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.30 | -0.30 | 02:00 |
| Manufacturing Production Month-over-Month | -0.20 | -0.20 | 02:00 |
- RICS House Price Balance misses at -34 vs -25, signaling property weakness
- FTSE 100 rises 0.59% to 10,325; 10Y gilt yield spikes +6.05% to 4.70%
- High-impact GDP prelims headline packed 07:00 BST data dump
Yesterday's Recap
Yesterday's sole UK release saw RICS House Price Balance plunge to -34, far below the -25 consensus and prior, underscoring persistent housing market fragility amid high mortgage costs. FTSE 100 advanced 0.59% to 10,325.40, while FTSE 250 gained 0.28% to 22,528.40, buoyed by global risk appetite. Sterling softened slightly, with GBP/USD dipping 0.06% to 1.35 and GBP/EUR edging up 0.07% to 1.15.
UK 10Y gilt yield surged +6.05% to 4.70%, reflecting hawkish repricing amid fiscal concerns. Brent crude fell 0.44% to 105.16, pressuring energy stocks, while UK natural gas rose 0.49% to 2.88. Gold climbed 0.13% to 4,704.00 as a safe haven; Bitcoin added 0.64% to 79,788.
The Day Ahead
Today's blockbuster 07:00 BST release features Q1 GDP growth prelims: q/q consensus 0.6% (prior 0.2%), y/y 0.8% (prior 1%), m/m -0.2% (prior 0.4%). Business investment q/q prelim eyes 1.1% rebound from -2.9%; GDP 3-month average consensus 0.6% vs prior 0.5%. Goods trade balance forecast improves to -£20bn from -£22.8bn, non-EU prior -£10.9bn (consensus unavailable).
Industrial production m/m consensus -0.3% (prior 0.3%); manufacturing -0.2% (prior -0.2%). Downside GDP surprise could accelerate gilt selling and sterling weakness; upside bolsters BoE hold odds.
Other Economic Notes
New Renters’ Rights Act mandates landlords provide tenants an Information Sheet by May 31 or face £7,000 fines, potentially tightening rental supply amid housing shortage. Political headwinds mount for PM Starmer, with a fifth of Labour MPs calling for resignation yet he rejects demands to step down; King Charles III to outline government agenda. Empty high streets contribute to populist Reform UK gains in local elections, highlighting regional economic divides.
Global Macro News
BoC interest rate announcement at 09:45 ET today, plus Monetary Policy Report and surveys, could influence GBP/CAD if paths diverge from BoE's 3.73% stance. Europeans increasingly favor ditching US ties, with 70% in EU/UK survey backing independence, risking transatlantic trade friction. ArcelorMittal priced $1bn bonds; Huhtamäki finalizes tender for 2027 notes.
OPEC+ output signals cap Brent upside at 105.16, easing UK imported inflation. Bitcoin's 79,788 level adds crypto spillover risk to gilts.
