UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
U.K. Q1 GDP Matches 0.6% View
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,372.90 | +0.46% |
| FTSE 250 | 22,588.37 | -1.05% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | -1.16% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.15 | -0.56% |
| GBP/JPY | 211.77 | -0.82% |
| Brent Crude | 107.16 | +1.36% |
| Gold | 4,586.90 | -1.95% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.93 | +1.28% |
| Bitcoin | 80,834.41 | -0.27% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.70% | +6.05% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Quarter-over-Quarter Preliminary | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| GDP Growth Year-over-Year Preliminary | 1 | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.40 | -0.20 | 0.30 |
| Business Investment Quarter-over-Quarter Prel | -2.90 | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.50 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -22,800m | -20,000m | -27,220m |
| Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | -10,944m | - | -15,195m |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.30 | -0.30 | -0.20 |
| Manufacturing Production Month-over-Month | -0.20 | -0.20 | 1.20 |
UK 10Y Gilt Yield | Type: macro_line | 10Y Yield (%): 4.701 (2026-03-01) | Range: 0.644–4.701 | Trend(6pt): 0.8549,2.328,4.569,4.434,4.432,4.701
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday (2026-05-19) | |||
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.90 | - | 02:00 |
| Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) | 3.80 | - | 02:00 |
| Employment Change | 25,000 | - | 02:00 |
| Wednesday (2026-05-20) | |||
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.30 | - | 02:00 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 3.10 | - | 02:00 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.70 | - | 02:00 |
| Thursday (2026-05-21) | |||
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 53.70 | - | 04:30 |
- UK Q1 GDP matched QoQ consensus at 0.6% while beating YoY forecast at 1.1%, lifting FTSE 100.
- Trade deficit widened sharply to -£27.2bn, pressuring sterling lower across majors.
- Gilt yields spiked with 10Y at 4.70%; Brent rose 1.36% on UAE ship seizure near Iran.
Yesterday's Recap
UK Q1 GDP grew 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, matching consensus and beating prior 0.2%; year-over-year rose 1.1% versus 0.8% expected, strongest in a year per reports. March GDP expanded 0.3% month-over-month, topping -0.2% forecast after February's 0.4%. Business investment rose 0.7% QoQ, missing 1.1% consensus but up from -2.9%.
Goods trade balance deteriorated to -£27.22bn from -£20bn expected; non-EU gap hit -£15.20bn. Industrial production dipped -0.2% MoM, better than -0.3% view; manufacturing surged 1.2% versus -0.2%. FTSE 100 gained 0.46% to 10,372.90 on growth beat, but FTSE 250 fell 1.05% to 22,588.37.
Sterling slid: GBP/USD -1.16% to 1.34, GBP/EUR -0.56% to 1.15, GBP/JPY -0.82% to 211.77. UK 10Y gilt yield climbed 6.05% to 4.70%; Brent +1.36% to $107.16, gold -1.95% to $4,586.90, UK nat gas +1.28% to 2.93.
The Day Ahead
No UK data today. Labor market data due Tuesday May 19: headline unemployment after 4.9%, average earnings incl. bonus prior 3.8%, employment change post +25k.
Wednesday May 20 brings inflation: YoY rate after 3.3%, core YoY prior 3.1%, MoM after 0.7%. Softer readings could boost easing bets, weighing on yields and sterling. Bank of Canada rate decision, surveys at 09:45/10:30/11:30/13:30 ET offer global policy cues.
Focus on Iran tensions for energy/commodity volatility impacting gilts and FTSE.
Other Economic Notes
Q1 growth held firm before Iran war intensified, per reports, with business/consumer resilience offsetting trade gaps. Chancellor Reeves' fiscal framework review due July, steadying gilt supply amid rising yields. EU industrial production beat aided UK exporters; Ireland's €2bn bond raise highlights Eurozone cost pressures spilling to UK.
Housing/retail monitor energy spikes; PMI risks loom if Brent sustains gains.
