UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Retail Sales Rebound Offsets Flat House Prices
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,254.51 | +0.27% |
| FTSE 250 | 22,866.06 | +0.12% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | +0.10% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.16 | -0.06% |
| GBP/JPY | 214.46 | +0.41% |
| Brent Crude | 92.51 | -0.63% |
| Gold | 4,130.00 | +0.53% |
| UK Nat Gas | 3.15 | -1.04% |
| Bitcoin | 62,615.99 | +1.90% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.82% | +2.55% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRC Retail Sales Monitor Year-over-Year | -3.40 | 0.60 | 3.40 |
| RICS House Price Balance | -34 | -31 | -34 |
UK Retail Sales YoY | Type: macro_line | Retail Sales YoY %: 1.765 (2026-03-01) | Range: -8.179–7.058 | Trend(5pt): 0.554,-7.629,0.2982,-1.202,1.765
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friday (2026-06-12) | |||
| GDP Month-over-Month | 0.30 | -0.10 | 22:00 |
| GDP 3-Month Avg | 0.60 | 0.70 | 22:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance | -27,220m | -22,500m | 22:00 |
| Goods Trade Balance Non-EU | -15,195m | - | 22:00 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | -0.20 | 0.10 | 22:00 |
| Manufacturing Production Month-over-Month | 1.20 | -0.20 | 22:00 |
- BRC retail sales jumped 3.4% y/y versus 0.6% consensus, signalling consumer resilience.
- RICS house price balance remained at -34, matching prior reading and missing forecasts.
- FTSE 100 rose 0.27% to 10,254.51 while 10-year gilt yields climbed 2.55% to 4.82%.
Yesterday's Recap
UK retail sales data surprised to the upside with BRC figures printing 3.4% y/y, reversing the prior -3.4% contraction and exceeding market expectations. The RICS house price balance printed unchanged at -34, indicating persistent weakness in the housing market. Equity markets advanced modestly as the FTSE 100 gained 0.27% and the FTSE 250 added 0.12%.
Sterling firmed, with GBP/USD rising 0.10% to 1.34 and GBP/JPY climbing 0.41% to 214.46. Gilt yields moved higher, pushing the 10-year yield to 4.82%. Brent crude eased 0.63% to 92.51 while UK natural gas fell 1.04% to 3.15.
Gold rose 0.53% to 4,130.
The Day Ahead
High-impact UK GDP month-over-month data are due at 22:00 ET with a consensus of -0.1% against a prior 0.3% print. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.1% m/m while manufacturing output is forecast to contract 0.2%. Goods trade balance figures will also be released, with the headline balance seen narrowing to -22.5bn.
Markets will monitor the releases for signs of softening momentum ahead of the weekend. Any downside surprise could reinforce expectations for near-term policy easing.
Other Economic Notes
Bank of England gilt sales have added 36bn to UK debt-servicing costs over four years, highlighting the fiscal consequences of quantitative tightening. Energy price shocks from Middle East tensions threaten to weigh on UK growth through higher import costs. Broader fiscal restraint signals from the Treasury suggest limited scope for offsetting stimulus in the near term.
Labour market data remain anchored around the verified 5.20% unemployment rate.
Global Macro News
Escalating US-Iran tensions drove oil prices higher and raised imported inflation risks for energy-dependent UK households. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting under new leadership adds uncertainty to global rate paths that influence sterling crosses. <i>↓ p.2</i>
