UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
UK PMIs Weaken, FTSE Slides 1.1%
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,390.03 | -1.13% |
| FTSE 250 | 22,926.50 | -1.17% |
| GBP/USD | 1.32 | -0.45% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.16 | +0.09% |
| GBP/JPY | 213.17 | -0.40% |
| Brent Crude | 76.30 | -1.01% |
| Gold | 4,102.10 | -0.67% |
| UK Nat Gas | 3.19 | +1.53% |
| Bitcoin | 62,715.46 | +0.08% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.94% | +2.51% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | 53.90 | 53.80 | 53.10 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | 49.30 | 50.50 | 48.70 |
| BoE Breeden Speech | - | - | - |
| CBI Industrial Trends Orders | -41 | -35 | -45 |
| BoE Taylor Speech | - | - | - |
| BoE Dhingra Speech | - | - | - |
FTSE 100 3M Performance | Type: market_hloc | FTSE 100: 1.043e+04 (2026-06-23) | Range: 9965–1.067e+04 | Trend(6pt): 9965,1.059e+04,1.023e+04,1.034e+04,1.044e+04,1.043e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| BoE Breeden Speech | - | - | 03:15 |
| BoE Dhingra Speech | - | - | 07:00 |
| BoE Pill Speech | - | - | 08:30 |
| Thursday (2026-06-25) | |||
| CBI Distributive Trades | -46 | -41 | 02:00 |
- Flash PMIs showed manufacturing at 53.1 and services at 48.7, both missing consensus and pointing to softer growth.
- FTSE 100 fell 1.13% to 10,390 while 10-year gilt yields rose 2.51% to 4.94%.
- BoE speakers Breeden, Taylor and Dhingra addressed markets amid Bank Rate at 3.73% and CPI at 3.4%.
Yesterday's Recap
S&P Global flash data released at 00:30 ET confirmed a clear divergence between sectors. Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.1 from 53.9, while services PMI dropped to 48.7 against an expected 50.5, signalling the first contraction in services since late 2025. The CBI Industrial Trends Orders balance worsened to -45, worse than the -35 consensus.
Equities sold off across the board with the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 both declining more than 1%. Sterling weakened 0.45% versus the dollar to 1.32, while 10-year gilt yields climbed sharply. Three Bank of England speakers delivered remarks throughout the day, keeping policy expectations in focus.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to further BoE communications with speeches from Breeden at 03:15 ET, Dhingra at 07:00 ET and Pill at 08:30 ET. Markets will parse any fresh signals on the timing of future rate moves given the current 3.73% Bank Rate. Thursday also brings the CBI Distributive Trades survey at 02:00 ET, expected to show some improvement from -46.
No major data releases are scheduled for the remainder of the week. Sterling crosses and gilt futures will likely remain sensitive to the tone of MPC member comments.
Other Economic Notes
UK unemployment stands at 4.9%, providing a stable but elevated backdrop for wage negotiations. CPI at 3.4% continues to run above the 2% target, limiting the scope for aggressive easing. Recent PMI weakness raises the risk that Q2 GDP could print below the Bank’s May projection.
Gilt markets have priced in a slower pace of cuts than previously anticipated, with the 10-year yield now at 4.94%.
Global Macro News
US data resilience and a hawkish Fed tone have supported the dollar, weighing on GBP/USD. Brent crude fell 1.01% to $76.30, easing imported inflation pressures for the UK. Gold declined 0.67% amid firmer real yields.
European growth concerns have kept EUR/GBP range-bound near 1.16. <i>↓ p.2</i>
