UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
CPI Cools to 2.6% as Jobs Hold Steady
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,600.40 | +0.27% |
| FTSE 250 | 23,752.40 | +0.90% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | -0.34% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.17 | -0.34% |
| GBP/JPY | 218.29 | +0.03% |
| Brent Crude | 91.90 | +0.98% |
| Gold | 4,137.80 | +1.64% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.88 | +0.49% |
| Bitcoin | 65,930.66 | +1.07% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.80% | -2.95% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.90 | 5 | 4.90 |
| Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) | 4.40 | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| Employment Change | 100,000 | 85,000 | 147,000 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.80 | 2.70 | 2.60 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.60 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
UK House Prices | Type: macro_line | House Price Index: -2.163 (2026-01-01) | Range: -7.308–2.258 | Trend(6pt): 2.258,-1.561,-6.356,-0.04994,-1.072,-2.163
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-07-23) | |||
| CBI Business Optimism Index | -65 | - | 02:00 |
| CBI Industrial Trends Orders | -45 | -40 | 02:00 |
| GFK Consumer Confidence Index | -23 | -21 | 15:01 |
| Friday (2026-07-24) | |||
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 1.20 | -0.20 | 22:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 3.20 | 2.40 | 22:00 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | - | 52 | 00:30 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | - | 49.30 | 00:30 |
- UK inflation eased to 2.6% y/y in June versus 2.7% consensus, with core steady at 2.6%.
- Labour market showed resilience: unemployment held at 4.9% while employment rose 147k against 85k expected.
- FTSE 100 advanced 0.27% and 10-year gilt yields fell 2.95% to 4.80% on softer price data.
Yesterday's Recap
UK June CPI printed 2.6% y/y, undershooting the 2.7% consensus and marking a further deceleration from the prior 2.8%. Core inflation remained at 2.6% while the monthly rate matched the 0.1% consensus. Headline unemployment stayed at 4.9% and employment increased 147,000, exceeding forecasts.
Private-sector wage growth slowed to 4.3% from 4.4%. Markets responded positively: the FTSE 100 rose 0.27% to 10,600.40, the FTSE 250 gained 0.90%, and the 10-year gilt yield dropped sharply. Sterling weakened modestly, with GBP/USD falling 0.34% to 1.34.
Brent crude rose 0.98% to $91.90 amid separate supply concerns. The combination of lower-than-expected inflation and firmer employment prints reinforced views that price pressures are moderating without immediate labour-market deterioration, supporting a measured policy response.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to Thursday’s CBI Business Optimism and Industrial Trends surveys, expected to show modest improvement in orders. Friday brings high-impact retail sales figures, with month-on-month growth forecast at -0.2% after a strong 1.2% prior print. S&P Global flash PMIs for July will follow, with manufacturing consensus at 52 and services at 49.3.
Any services reading below 50 would reinforce expectations for earlier BoE easing. Markets will also monitor GfK consumer confidence for signs of household resilience ahead of the weekend. These releases will provide fresh insight into business and consumer sentiment following the mixed inflation and jobs data, helping to clarify whether the recent services-led growth momentum is intact.
Other Economic Notes
The combination of cooling inflation and stable employment leaves the BoE with mixed signals on the timing of the next rate cut. Fiscal developments remain in focus after Chancellor Reeves signalled a revised framework emphasising debt sustainability. Higher migration assumptions flagged by the OBR could ease near-term borrowing projections in the November forecast.
Domestic data continue to show services offsetting weakness in goods sectors, supporting a gradual rather than abrupt slowdown narrative. <i>↓ p.2</i>
