UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
UK Inflation Cools to 2.6% With Jobs Beat
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,727.70 | +1.34% |
| FTSE 250 | 23,926.60 | +0.73% |
| GBP/USD | 1.34 | +0.07% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.17 | -0.21% |
| GBP/JPY | 218.31 | +0.04% |
| Brent Crude | 96.05 | +2.10% |
| Gold | 4,126.90 | -0.48% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.98 | +1.91% |
| Bitcoin | 65,682.75 | -1.24% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.80% | -2.95% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.90 | 5 | 4.90 |
| Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) | 4.40 | 4.50 | 4.30 |
| Employment Change | 99,000 | 85,000 | 147,000 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.80 | 2.70 | 2.60 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.60 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
FTSE 100 Index | Type: market_hloc | FTSE 100: 1.072e+04 (2026-07-22) | Range: 1.02e+04–1.072e+04 | Trend(5pt): 1.048e+04,1.02e+04,1.023e+04,1.048e+04,1.072e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBI Business Optimism Index | -65 | - | 02:00 |
| CBI Industrial Trends Orders | -45 | -40 | 02:00 |
| GFK Consumer Confidence Index | -23 | -21 | 15:01 |
| Friday (2026-07-24) | |||
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 1.20 | -0.20 | 22:00 |
| Retail Sales Year-over-Year | 3.20 | 2.40 | 22:00 |
| S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash | - | 52 | 00:30 |
| S&P Global Services PMI Flash | - | 49.30 | 00:30 |
- UK inflation fell to 2.6% YoY in June, below consensus, while core CPI held at 2.6%.
- Labour market showed resilience with unemployment steady at 4.9% and employment rising 147,000.
- FTSE 100 rose 1.34% and 10-year gilt yields eased as markets priced slower BoE easing.
Yesterday's Recap
UK headline CPI declined to 2.6% YoY in June, undershooting the 2.7% consensus and the prior 2.8% print, while core CPI remained unchanged at 2.6%. The month-over-month rate printed at 0.1%, matching expectations. Labour market data released alongside showed the unemployment rate holding at 4.9% against a 5.0% forecast.
Average earnings growth slowed to 4.3% from 4.4%, below the 4.5% consensus. Employment change surprised positively at 147,000 versus an 85,000 expectation. Equity markets responded with the FTSE 100 climbing 1.34% to 10,727.70 and the FTSE 250 advancing 0.73%.
Sterling posted modest gains against the dollar while the 10-year gilt yield fell 2.95% to 4.80%. Brent crude advanced 2.10% to 96.05 amid renewed geopolitical tensions.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to the CBI Business Optimism Index and Industrial Trends Orders due at 02:00 ET. GfK Consumer Confidence is scheduled for 15:01 ET and is expected to improve to -21. Retail sales figures for June follow at 22:00 ET, with month-over-month growth forecast to contract 0.2% after the prior 1.2% rise.
Flash PMIs from S&P Global on Friday will provide the first read on July activity, with manufacturing expected at 52.0 and services at 49.3. Markets will also monitor any MPC member comments ahead of the next policy decision.
Other Economic Notes
June’s inflation dip was driven largely by lower fuel prices, though analysts caution the trend may reverse once energy costs rebound following the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire. A recent study estimated the June heatwave reduced UK output by more than £1 billion. Business rates relief announced for pubs, clubs and music venues aims to support hospitality, yet broader fiscal pressures remain elevated.
Nomura highlighted that persistent core CPI resilience could complicate the Bank of England’s rate path even as headline inflation moderates. Major UK banks have contacted 146,000 vulnerable customers facing high energy costs.
