UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoE Hold Looms as CPI Eases
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,736.23 | +0.91% |
| FTSE 250 | 23,898.10 | +0.41% |
| GBP/USD | 1.33 | -0.46% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.17 | -0.23% |
| GBP/JPY | 218.43 | +0.15% |
| Brent Crude | 87.64 | -0.81% |
| Gold | 4,042.70 | -0.78% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.75 | -0.51% |
| Bitcoin | 63,380.81 | -3.00% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.80% | -2.95% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBI Distributive Trades | -54 | -45 | -26 |
UK House Prices | Type: macro_line | House Price Index: -2.163 (2026-01-01) | Range: -7.308–2.258 | Trend(6pt): 2.258,-1.561,-6.356,-0.04994,-1.072,-2.163
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday (2026-07-29) | |||
| BoE Consumer Credit | 1,662m | - | 00:30 |
| Mortgage Approvals | 56,210 | 56,500 | 00:30 |
| Mortgage Lending Level | 2,890m | - | 00:30 |
| Thursday (2026-07-30) | |||
| BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 03:00 |
| BoE MPC Vote Cut | 0 | - | 03:00 |
| BoE MPC Vote Hike | 2 | - | 03:00 |
| BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 7 | - | 03:00 |
| BoE Monetary Policy Report | - | - | 03:00 |
- UK CPI at 2.60% and unemployment at 4.90% reinforce BoE hold expectations at 3.73%.
- FTSE 100 rises 0.91% while 10Y gilt yields fall to 4.80% on softer data.
- CBI Distributive Trades beat at -26 versus -45 consensus.
Yesterday's Recap
UK distributive trades improved sharply to -26 in July, beating the -45 consensus and signalling resilient consumer spending. FTSE 100 advanced 0.91% to 10,736.23 while the FTSE 250 gained 0.41%. Sterling weakened, with GBP/USD falling 0.46% to 1.33 and GBP/EUR down 0.23%.
The 10Y gilt yield declined 2.95% to 4.80%, reflecting lower rate-hike odds. Brent crude slipped 0.81% amid Middle East supply concerns. No MPC members spoke, leaving markets focused on Thursday’s decision.
The data release supported gilts and equities without shifting the broader disinflation narrative. Core disinflation continues with UK CPI at 2.60%, keeping real yields attractive despite the 3.73% policy rate. Labour-market slack at 4.90% unemployment limits wage pressures and supports the higher bar for tightening.
Energy price rebounds have not yet altered the BoE’s medium-term outlook. Retail sales and housing indicators remain key domestic gauges ahead of the August meeting. Gilt curves have flattened modestly as markets price limited policy changes through year-end.
The Day Ahead
Markets await the BoE Interest Rate Decision on Thursday, with consensus pointing to a hold at 3.75%. BoE Consumer Credit, Mortgage Approvals and Mortgage Lending Level are due at 00:30 ET. Governor Bailey delivers a speech at 05:15 ET after the Monetary Policy Report and MPC minutes.
Nationwide house price data follows on Friday. Euro-area flash HICP later this week will shape external rate-cut pricing for sterling assets. Traders will scrutinise the vote split and any updates to forward guidance.
The committee voted to hold.
Other Economic Notes
Core disinflation continues with UK CPI at 2.60%, keeping real yields attractive despite the 3.73% policy rate. Labour-market slack at 4.90% unemployment limits wage pressures and supports the higher bar for tightening. Energy price rebounds have not yet altered the BoE’s medium-term outlook.
Retail sales and housing indicators remain key domestic gauges ahead of the August meeting. Gilt curves have flattened modestly as markets price limited policy changes through year-end.
