UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
BoE Holds Rate With Hawkish Tilt
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,886.43 | -0.20% |
| FTSE 250 | 24,079.10 | +0.34% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | +0.64% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.17 | +0.19% |
| GBP/JPY | 215.93 | -1.08% |
| Brent Crude | 87.40 | -1.83% |
| Gold | 4,140.10 | +0.98% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.78 | +0.62% |
| Bitcoin | 64,313.31 | +0.63% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.80% | -2.95% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBI Distributive Trades | -54 | -45 | -26 |
| BoE Consumer Credit | 1,723m | 1,700m | 1,807m |
| Mortgage Approvals | 56,570 | 57,100 | 58,200 |
| Mortgage Lending Level | 3,270m | 3,950m | 7,730m |
| BoE Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| BoE MPC Vote Cut | 0 | - | 0 |
| BoE MPC Vote Hike | 2 | - | 3 |
| BoE MPC Vote Unchanged | 7 | - | 6 |
| BoE Monetary Policy Report | - | - | - |
| MPC Meeting Minutes | - | - | - |
GBP/USD (3mo) | Type: market_hloc | Rate: 1.345 (2026-07-31) | Range: 1.317–1.36 | Trend(6pt): 1.349,1.343,1.345,1.34,1.329,1.345
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
- BoE maintains Bank Rate at 3.75% with three members voting to hike
- Stronger-than-expected mortgage lending and consumer credit data released
- UK 10Y gilt yield falls to 4.80% as markets digest policy signals
Yesterday's Recap
The Bank of England kept the policy rate at 3.75% on 30 July, with the MPC recording six votes to hold, three to hike and none to cut. Consumer credit rose to £1.807bn against a £1.7bn consensus while mortgage approvals reached 58,200, above the 57,100 expected. Mortgage lending jumped to £7.73bn, far exceeding forecasts.
Nationwide house prices rose 0.1% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year. The FTSE 100 fell 0.20% to 10,886.43 while the FTSE 250 gained 0.34%. Sterling strengthened 0.64% against the dollar to 1.35 and the 10Y gilt yield declined 2.95% to 4.80%.
The Monetary Policy Report and minutes highlighted risks of persistent inflation pressures.
The Day Ahead
No major UK data releases are scheduled for 31 July. Attention turns to US PCE inflation later in the day, which could influence sterling crosses and gilt curves. Market participants will monitor any follow-up comments from MPC members on the latest vote split.
OIS pricing continues to embed limited easing through year-end. Housing and credit data from yesterday are expected to support views of resilient domestic demand. Sterling volatility may increase on global risk sentiment.
Other Economic Notes
UK unemployment stands at 4.90% while CPI inflation prints at 2.60% year-on-year, indicating sticky underlying price pressures. Stronger mortgage and consumer credit figures point to continued household borrowing despite elevated borrowing costs. The 10Y gilt yield at 4.94% reflects market caution over the BoE’s willingness to tolerate above-target inflation.
Broader fiscal rules reiterated by the Chancellor remain a key anchor for gilt supply expectations. Services inflation persistence continues to limit the scope for near-term rate cuts.
Global Macro News
US-Iran missile exchanges raised geopolitical risk premia and supported safe-haven flows into gold, which rose 0.98%. China expressed serious concern over new US trade restrictions, adding uncertainty to global supply chains that could affect UK import prices. Brent crude fell 1.83% to $87.40 on softer demand signals.
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