UK Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Gilts Rally Ahead of Weak Construction PMI
Market Snapshot
| Asset | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | 10,868.10 | -0.27% |
| FTSE 250 | 24,459.30 | +0.97% |
| GBP/USD | 1.35 | -0.28% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.17 | -0.16% |
| GBP/JPY | 211.79 | -0.37% |
| Brent Crude | 79.11 | -5.56% |
| Gold | 4,140.50 | +2.65% |
| UK Nat Gas | 2.67 | -4.06% |
| Bitcoin | 64,094.54 | +1.00% |
| UK 2Y Gilt | - | - |
| UK 10Y Gilt | 4.80% | -2.95% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
FTSE 100 Index | Type: market_hloc | Price: 1.088e+04 (2026-08-04) | Range: 1.02e+04–1.091e+04 | Trend(5pt): 1.022e+04,1.043e+04,1.036e+04,1.05e+04,1.088e+04
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (2026-08-06) | |||
| S&P Global Construction PMI Index | - | 41.50 | 00:30 |
| Friday (2026-08-07) | |||
| Lloyds House Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.30 | 22:00 |
| Lloyds House Price Index Year-over-Year | 0.60 | 0.40 | 22:00 |
- UK markets closed mixed on 3 August with FTSE 100 down 0.27% while gilts rallied sharply on softer global growth signals.
- No domestic data releases occurred yesterday, leaving focus on upcoming Construction PMI and Lloyds house-price readings.
- BoE Bank Rate held at 3.73% with markets pricing limited easing ahead of the August meeting.
Yesterday's Recap
Equity markets showed divergence as the FTSE 100 fell 0.27% to 10,868.10 while the FTSE 250 rose 0.97% to 24,459.30, reflecting relative strength in mid-cap domestic names. Sterling weakened across the board with GBP/USD declining 0.28% to 1.35, GBP/EUR falling 0.16% to 1.17 and GBP/JPY dropping 0.37% to 211.79. Energy prices led the downside with Brent crude plunging 5.56% to 79.11 and UK natural gas declining 4.06% to 2.67.
Safe-haven flows lifted gold 2.65% to 4,140.50 while Bitcoin gained 1.00% to 64,094.54. The UK 10Y gilt yield fell 2.95% to 4.80%, extending the recent decline from the 5.03% level recorded on 31 July. With no UK data prints or MPC speeches, price action reflected external drivers including softer China demand signals and higher OPEC+ supply expectations.
The Day Ahead
Attention turns to the S&P Global Construction PMI scheduled for release on 6 August with consensus at 41.5, a level that would signal continued contraction in the sector. The following day brings the Lloyds House Price Index, where month-over-month growth is expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2% while the year-over-year rate is forecast to ease to 0.4% from 0.6%. These housing metrics will be scrutinised for signs of cooling demand amid elevated borrowing costs.
No MPC members are scheduled to speak and no minutes or inflation reports are due before the next policy meeting. Markets will also monitor any updates on Critical Third Party oversight announced by HM Treasury, though immediate market impact is expected to be limited.
Other Economic Notes
Persistent infrastructure and water-supply constraints continue to threaten government housebuilding targets, with council leaders warning that planning ambitions cannot be met without major capital investment. UK unemployment stood at 4.90% in April while CPI inflation registered 2.60% year-over-year in June, indicating labour-market slack is emerging only gradually. Retail-sales strength recorded in June has not yet translated into broader price pressures, keeping underlying disinflation on track.
These trends reinforce expectations that the BoE will maintain a cautious stance even as growth concerns mount. Housing-market data due this week will provide an early read on whether higher rates are finally cooling demand.
