US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Weak Data Fuel Rate Cut Hopes
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,830.60 | +0.69% |
| Nasdaq | 23,214.69 | +0.82% |
| Spot VIX | 17.19 | -7.38% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.49 | +2 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.00 | -0 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1600 | +0.04% |
| USD/JPY | 156.24 | -0.05% |
| GBP/USD | 1.324 | +0.02% |
| WTI Oil | 58.06 | 0.00% |
| Gold | 4,162.53 | 0.00% |
| Bitcoin | 91,392.63 | +1.01% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | -2,500 | - | -13,500 |
| Producer Price Index Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| Core PPI Month-over-Month | -0.10 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| Retail Sales Control Group Month-over-Month | 0.60 | 0.30 | -0.10 |
| Retail Sales Excluding Autos Month-over-Month | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Year-over-Year | 1.60 | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Business Inventories Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0 |
| Cb Consumer Confidence | 95.50 | - | 88.70 |
| Pending Home Sales Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.50 | 1.90 |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.37 | - | 07:00 |
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | 3 | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.20 | 08:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 222,000 | 225,000 | 08:30 |
| Chicago PMI | 43.80 | 44.30 | 09:45 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -3.4m | -500,000 | 10:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 2.3m | 700,000 | 10:30 |
| Fed Beige Book | - | - | 14:00 |
- ADP employment plunged to -13.5k, far below expectations, signaling labor market deterioration.
- Retail sales missed consensus at 0.2% m/m, highlighting subdued consumer spending.
- Fed cutting cycle may accelerate pace amid softening economic signals.
Yesterday's Recap
ADP employment change tumbled to -13.5k, a sharp miss against prior -2.5k and underscoring labor market weakness.
Producer price index met expectations at 0.3% m/m, with core PPI at 0.1% slightly below 0.2% forecast.
Retail sales rose 0.2% m/m, missing 0.4% consensus, while consumer confidence dipped to 88.7 from 95.5.
Equities traded calmly, S&P 500 at 6830.60 and Nasdaq at 23214.69, with VIX steady at 17.19.
Bond yields held firm, 2-year at 3.49% and 10-year at 4.00%, as no major catalysts emerged.
FX pairs showed minimal shifts, EUR/USD at 1.1600 and USD/JPY at 156.24, amid low volatility.
The Day Ahead
Durable goods orders at 8:30am are expected at 0.3% m/m versus 3.0% prior, potentially revealing manufacturing trends.
Weekly jobless claims at 8:30am forecast 225k, up from 222k, with higher figures signaling labor stress.
Chicago PMI at 9:45am anticipated at 44.3, above 43.8 prior, offering insights into regional activity.
EIA crude inventories at 10:30am expected -500k versus -3.4M prior, watching for supply impacts. (cont...)
