US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
PMI Miss Fuels Cut Hopes
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,830.60 | +0.69% |
| Nasdaq | 23,214.69 | +0.82% |
| Spot VIX | 17.21 | +0.12% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.49 | +2 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.00 | -0 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1600 | +0.04% |
| USD/JPY | 156.24 | -0.05% |
| GBP/USD | 1.324 | +0.02% |
| WTI Oil | Data Unavailable | Data Unavailable |
| Gold | 4,162.53 | 0.00% |
| Bitcoin | 91,380.65 | +1.00% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.37 | - | 6.40 |
| Durable Goods Orders Month-over-Month | 3 | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp Month-over-Month | 0.50 | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 222,000 | 225,000 | 216,000 |
| Chicago PMI | 43.80 | 44.30 | 36.30 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -3.4m | -500,000 | 2.8m |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 2.3m | 700,000 | 2.5m |
| Fed Beige Book | - | - | - |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve Balance Sheet | 6560m | - | 16:30 |
- Chicago PMI plunged to 36.3, a sharp miss against 44.3 consensus, signaling severe manufacturing contraction.
- Durable goods orders beat expectations at 0.5% MoM, supported by ex-transport strength at 0.6%.
- Fed cutting cycle may accelerate amid weakening data, with markets eyeing fewer 2025 cuts.
Yesterday's Recap
Durable goods orders rose 0.5% MoM, exceeding 0.3% consensus and highlighting ex-transport resilience at 0.6%, while weekly jobless claims fell to 216k below 225k expectations.
Chicago PMI collapsed to 36.3, far below 44.3 forecast and prior 43.8, underscoring deep manufacturing weakness.
EIA crude inventories built 2.774M barrels, a massive surprise versus -0.5M expected, potentially easing supply concerns.
Fed Beige Book offered regional insights without major shifts.
Equities held steady with S&P 500 at 6830.60 and Nasdaq at 23214.69, amid calm trading as VIX edged to 17.21.
Bond yields remained flat, 2-year at 3.49% and 10-year at 4.00%, while FX pairs like EUR/USD at 1.1600 showed minimal changes.
Commodities were stable, gold at 4162.53 and Bitcoin at 91380.65, with WTI oil data unavailable but inventories suggesting oversupply. (cont...)
