Fed Eyes Cuts Amid ISM Data

Date: December 01, 2025

Fed Eyes Cuts Amid ISM Data

Summary

Market Snapshot

Prior Close
Asset Level Days Change
S&P 500 6,868.80 +0.56%
Nasdaq 23,365.69 +0.65%
Spot VIX 18.21 +11.38%
2 Year Bond Yield 3.50 0 bps
10 Year Bond Yield 4.05 +3 bps
EUR/USD 1.1637 +0.32%
USD/JPY 154.96 -0.76%
GBP/USD 1.325 +0.09%
WTI Oil Data Unavailable Data Unavailable
Gold 4,256.04 +0.91%
Bitcoin 85,732.14 -5.13%

Prior Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Actual
No events available

Upcoming Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Time
ISM Manufacturing PMI48.7048.6010:00
ISM Manufacturing Employment46-10:00
Speech by Fed's Chair Powell--20:00
Speech by Fed's Bowman--10:00
API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks-1.9m-16:30

Friday's Recap

Markets settled higher on Black Friday, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.5% to 6868.80 amid holiday-shortened trading. Nasdaq rose 0.8% to 23365.69, led by tech stocks, while the spot VIX fell to 18.21, indicating reduced volatility. Bond yields edged up modestly, with the 2-year at 3.50% and 10-year at 4.05%, as rate cut bets supported equities. FX traded calmly, with EUR/USD at 1.1637 and GBP/USD at 1.325, while gold dipped to 4256.04. Bitcoin surged to 85732.14, reflecting crypto's sensitivity to risk-on sentiment. No major economic data released, keeping focus on upcoming Fed speeches and ISM prints.

The Day Ahead

ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 is expected at 48.6, below the previous 48.7, potentially pressuring equities if it signals further contraction. Employment data at the same time forecasts 46.0, unchanged, offering insights into labor market resilience. Fed Chair Powell speaks at 20:00, with Bowman at 10:00, likely emphasizing data dependence in the cutting cycle amid mixed global signals. (cont...)

The Day Ahead (continued)

Markets will watch for any dovish shifts that could boost stocks and weaken the USD.

Other Economic Notes

Holiday shopping sentiment remains strong, with retail data hinting at resilient consumer spending despite inflation pressures. Global energy prices fluctuate, with WTI oil steady and geopolitical tensions influencing supply dynamics. UK Budget debates highlight fiscal challenges, indirectly supporting USD strength via US policy contrasts.

Fed Watch

The Fed remains in a cutting cycle, with recent data supporting faster cuts if inflation cools further without growth risks. Markets price fewer cuts in 2025, reflecting hawkish data surprises that could slow the pace. Powell may reiterate data dependence, favoring gradual easing over aggressive moves. Bond yields' stability underscores confidence in policy, though volatility could rise on mixed PMI prints.


Source: https://robomacro.com/Research_Notes/US_Macro_Daily_20251201.html