US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Fed Eyes Cuts Amid Data Weakness
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,836.60 | -0.47% |
| Nasdaq | 23,275.92 | -0.38% |
| Spot VIX | 16.70 | -3.13% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.54 | -1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.09 | 0 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1608 | -0.01% |
| USD/JPY | 155.96 | +0.33% |
| GBP/USD | 1.320 | -0.09% |
| WTI Oil | Data Unavailable | Data Unavailable |
| Gold | 4,194.11 | -0.88% |
| Bitcoin | 87,372.96 | +1.26% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 48.70 | 48.60 | 48.20 |
| ISM Manufacturing Employment | 46 | - | 44 |
| Speech by Fed's Chair Powell | - | - | - |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | 10:00 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -1.9m | - | 16:30 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.40 | - | 07:00 |
| ADP Employment Change | 42,000 | 10,000 | 08:15 |
| Export Prices Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0 | 08:30 |
| Import Prices Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.10 | 08:30 |
| Industrial Production Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.10 | 09:15 |
| Services Sector PMI | 52.40 | 52.10 | 10:00 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 2.8m | - | 10:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 2.5m | - | 10:30 |
- ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2, below consensus, signaling contraction in US factory activity and potential headwinds for growth.
- Fed Chair Powell's speech highlighted data dependence, reinforcing expectations for gradual rate cuts.
- Bond yields edged lower, supporting equity stability as risk sentiment holds amid global uncertainties.
Yesterday's Recap
The ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.2, missing consensus expectations of 48.6, with employment subindex at 44.0, underscoring persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector.
Fed Chair Powell emphasized data-driven policy in his speech, noting ongoing inflation progress but economic uncertainties.
Equities traded calmly, with the S&P 500 at 6836.60 and Nasdaq at 23275.92, showing minimal volatility as VIX held at 16.70.
Bond yields stabilized, with 2-year at 3.54% and 10-year at 4.09%, while FX moved modestly, EUR/USD at 1.1608 and USD/JPY at 155.96.
Commodities were mixed, gold at 4194.11 and Bitcoin at 87372.96, amid global news of geopolitical tensions and economic reforms.
The Day Ahead
ADP Employment Change at 08:15 is expected at 10K, potentially revealing labor market trends post-shutdown.
Industrial Production at 09:15 could beat consensus at 0.1%, signaling manufacturing resilience.
Fed Vice Chair Bowman speech at 10:00 may clarify supervisory shifts, influencing market expectations for rate cuts.
Services Sector PMI at 10:00 is forecast at 52.1, offering insights into service activity. (cont...)
