| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,878.50 | +0.09% |
| Nasdaq | 23,505.14 | +0.22% |
| Spot VIX | 15.82 | +0.25% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.54 | +1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.12 | +1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1647 | +0.03% |
| USD/JPY | 155.16 | +0.03% |
| GBP/USD | 1.333 | +0.03% |
| WTI Oil | 58.95 | +0.53% |
| Gold | 4,221.02 | +0.31% |
| Bitcoin | 91,430.44 | -0.73% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 218,000 | 220,000 | 191,000 |
| Factory Orders Month-over-Month | 1.30 | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| Speech by Fed's Bowman | - | - | - |
| Federal Reserve Balance Sheet | 6550m | - | 6540m |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core PCE Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.20 | 10:00 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel | 51 | 52 | 10:00 |
| Personal Income Month-over-Month | 0.40 | 0.30 | 10:00 |
| Personal Spending Month-over-Month | 0.60 | 0.30 | 10:00 |
| PCE Price Index Month-over-Month | 0.30 | 0.30 | 10:00 |
| PCE Price Index Year-over-Year | 2.70 | 2.80 | 10:00 |
Weekly jobless claims dropped sharply to 191,000, well below consensus expectations of 220,000 and the prior reading of 218,000, reflecting a stronger-than-anticipated labor market that surprised investors and supported equities. Factory orders, however, missed consensus at 0.2% m/m versus 0.5% expected, with the prior at 1.3%, indicating softening manufacturing activity that weighed on industrial shares. Markets traded calmly, with the S&P 500 at 6,878.50, Nasdaq at 23,505.14, and VIX at 15.82 reflecting low volatility amid no major Fed speeches. Bond yields edged lower, with the 2-year at 3.54% and 10-year at 4.12%, while FX was stable with EUR/USD at 1.1647 and GBP/USD at 1.333. Commodities saw minor moves, WTI oil at $58.95, gold at $4,221.02, and bitcoin at $91,430.44, with no outsized volatility. (cont...)
The core PCE price index month-over-month at 10:00 is expected at 0.2%, a key inflation gauge that could influence Fed rate cut timing if it surprises. Michigan consumer sentiment at 10:00 is forecasted at 52, providing insight into household confidence amid economic uncertainty. Personal income and spending data at 10:00, both at 0.3% consensus, will assess consumer health and potential growth drivers. PCE year-over-year at 2.8% expected will round out inflation views, with any misses potentially accelerating easing bets.
Labor market tightness persists despite jobless claims improvements, supporting wage moderation and disinflation. Manufacturing softness in factory orders highlights sector vulnerabilities amid global trade tensions.
In the cutting cycle, recent jobless claims beats tilt toward faster cuts, with markets pricing fewer pauses. Powell's data-dependent tone favors more reductions if inflation data confirms cooling trends. Consensus leans toward steady easing, balancing labor strength with inflation risks.