US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

December 08, 2025 robomacro.com

Fed Cuts Ahead on Labor Strength

Prior Close
Asset Level Days Change
S&P 500 6,891.10 +0.18%
Nasdaq 23,578.13 +0.31%
Spot VIX 16.30 +5.78%
2 Year Bond Yield 3.59 +2 bps
10 Year Bond Yield 4.16 +2 bps
EUR/USD 1.1649 +0.04%
USD/JPY 155.53 +0.15%
GBP/USD 1.332 -0.08%
WTI Oil 59.67 +1.22%
Gold 4,206.66 +0.19%
Bitcoin 92,104.28 +1.88%

Prior Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Actual
No events available
Chart of the Day

Today's Economic Events

Data Prior Cons Time
ADP Employment Change Weekly-13,500-08:15
JOLTs Job Openings7.2m7.2m10:00
JOLTs Job Openings--10:00
API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks-2.5m-16:30
  • Jobless claims beat expectations, signaling resilient labor market that supports Fed easing bets.
  • Tariffs dominate headlines, with markets bracing for potential trade disruptions amid ongoing tensions.
  • Commodities steady as oil balances geopolitical risks with demand hopes from rate cuts.

Friday's Recap

Weekly jobless claims fell to 191k, beating consensus and prior readings, highlighting labor market resilience that boosted equities.
Factory orders missed at 0.2% m/m versus 0.5% expected, pointing to softening manufacturing amid global trade headwinds.
Markets remained calm with S&P 500 closing at 6878.50, Nasdaq at 23505.14, and VIX at 15.82, reflecting low volatility.
Bond yields dipped slightly, 2-year at 3.54% and 10-year at 4.12%, while FX held steady with EUR/USD at 1.1647 and GBP/USD at 1.333.
Commodities saw muted moves, WTI oil at $58.95, gold at $4221.02, and bitcoin at $91430.44, with no extreme swings.

The Day Ahead

ADP employment change at 08:15, with previous at -13.5k, will gauge private sector hiring ahead of key labor reports.
JOLTs job openings at 10:00, expected at 7.2M versus prior 7.227M, offers insights into labor demand and Fed rate cut timing.
API weekly crude oil stocks at 16:30, previous -2.48M, may influence oil prices amid supply glut concerns. (cont...)

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US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)

December 08, 2025 robomacro.com
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Other Economic Notes

Middlemen dominance in the US economy, from Amazon to Uber, concentrates power and raises costs for consumers and suppliers.
India's rupee hits record lows, pressuring commodity prices and domestic inflation as global trade shifts.

Fed Watch

In the cutting cycle, resilient jobless claims favor faster cuts, with markets pricing fewer pauses in 2025.
Powell's data-dependent stance supports more reductions if labor data confirms cooling pressures.
Consensus leans toward steady easing, balancing inflation risks with economic stability.
Tariffs add uncertainty, potentially slowing cuts if they fuel inflation.

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