US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Tariffs Cloud Trade Outlook
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,870.60 | -0.30% |
| Nasdaq | 23,545.90 | -0.14% |
| Spot VIX | 16.88 | +1.32% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.59 | +1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.16 | -1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1640 | +0.01% |
| USD/JPY | 156.13 | +0.13% |
| GBP/USD | 1.333 | +0.04% |
| WTI Oil | 60.08 | +0.69% |
| Gold | 4,203.72 | +0.32% |
| Bitcoin | 90,272.87 | -0.42% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | -13,500 | - | 08:15 |
| JOLTs Job Openings | 7.2m | 7.2m | 10:00 |
| JOLTs Job Openings | - | - | 10:00 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -2.5m | -1.7m | 16:30 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.32 | - | 07:00 |
| Employment Cost - Benefits Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.70 | - | 08:30 |
| Employment Cost - Wages Quarter-over-Quarter | 1 | - | 08:30 |
| Employment Cost Index Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.90 | 0.90 | 08:30 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 574,000 | - | 10:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 4.5m | - | 10:30 |
- US tariffs on China and India spurred a $12B farm aid package, offsetting agricultural losses but heightening global trade friction.
- ADP employment and JOLTs data today will gauge labor resilience amid Fed cut expectations.
- Fed's cutting cycle tilts dovish, with markets pricing fewer 2025 cuts due to tariff-induced inflation risks.
Yesterday's Recap
Markets closed lower on Monday, with equities retreating amid tariff-driven uncertainty, though volatility remained subdued as VIX edged up modestly.
Bond yields ticked higher, reflecting elevated inflation concerns from US tariffs, while FX saw the USD firm against EUR and JPY on trade tensions.
Commodities traded calmly, with WTI oil stable and gold holding gains supported by geopolitical risks, bitcoin pulling back slightly after recent highs.
No major economic data released, but Fed consumer expectations survey showed persistent inflation worries, bolstering rate cut bets.
The Day Ahead
ADP employment change at 08:15, previous at -13500, may signal private sector hiring trends ahead of Fed decisions.
JOLTs job openings at 10:00, expected at 7200000 versus prior 7227000, will probe labor demand and influence easing forecasts.
API crude oil stocks at 16:30, previous -2480000, could sway oil prices amid global supply dynamics.
