| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,870.60 | -0.30% |
| Nasdaq | 23,545.90 | -0.14% |
| Spot VIX | 16.88 | +1.32% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.59 | +1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.16 | -1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1640 | +0.01% |
| USD/JPY | 156.13 | +0.13% |
| GBP/USD | 1.333 | +0.04% |
| WTI Oil | 60.08 | +0.69% |
| Gold | 4,203.72 | +0.32% |
| Bitcoin | 90,272.87 | -0.42% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| No events available | |||
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | -13,500 | - | 08:15 |
| JOLTs Job Openings | 7.2m | 7.2m | 10:00 |
| JOLTs Job Openings | - | - | 10:00 |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -2.5m | -1.7m | 16:30 |
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.32 | - | 07:00 |
| Employment Cost - Benefits Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.70 | - | 08:30 |
| Employment Cost - Wages Quarter-over-Quarter | 1 | - | 08:30 |
| Employment Cost Index Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.90 | 0.90 | 08:30 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 574,000 | - | 10:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 4.5m | - | 10:30 |
Markets closed lower on Monday, with equities retreating amid tariff-driven uncertainty, though volatility remained subdued as VIX edged up modestly. Bond yields ticked higher, reflecting elevated inflation concerns from US tariffs, while FX saw the USD firm against EUR and JPY on trade tensions. Commodities traded calmly, with WTI oil stable and gold holding gains supported by geopolitical risks, bitcoin pulling back slightly after recent highs. No major economic data released, but Fed consumer expectations survey showed persistent inflation worries, bolstering rate cut bets.
ADP employment change at 08:15, previous at -13500, may signal private sector hiring trends ahead of Fed decisions. JOLTs job openings at 10:00, expected at 7200000 versus prior 7227000, will probe labor demand and influence easing forecasts. API crude oil stocks at 16:30, previous -2480000, could sway oil prices amid global supply dynamics.
China's trade surplus surpassed $1T, driven by tariff shifts redirecting exports, while India's rice tariffs burden US consumers. Global politics saw EU warnings on Russian aggression, amplifying geopolitical risks to trade flows.
In the cutting cycle, recent data leans toward more cuts, as labor strength supports easing despite tariff inflation pressures. Markets price fewer 2025 reductions, with dovish tilt favoring faster pace if jobs data cools further. Powell may emphasize data dependence tomorrow, balancing growth with inflation risks.