US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Rate Cuts Build as Labor Beats
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,865.10 | -0.08% |
| Nasdaq | 23,576.49 | +0.13% |
| Spot VIX | 17.31 | +2.24% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.63 | +1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.20 | +1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1635 | +0.07% |
| USD/JPY | 156.72 | -0.11% |
| GBP/USD | 1.331 | +0.07% |
| WTI Oil | 58.88 | -2.00% |
| Gold | 4,194.24 | -0.33% |
| Bitcoin | 92,366.26 | -0.35% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | -13,500 | - | 4,750 |
| JOLTs Job Openings | 7.2m | 7.2m | 7.7m |
| JOLTs Job Openings | 7.7m | - | 7.7m |
| API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | -2.5m | -1.7m | -4.8m |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.32 | - | 07:00 |
| Employment Cost - Benefits Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.70 | - | 08:30 |
| Employment Cost - Wages Quarter-over-Quarter | 1 | - | 08:30 |
| Employment Cost Index Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.90 | 0.90 | 08:30 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 574,000 | -1.2m | 10:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 4.5m | - | 10:30 |
| Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 3.75 | 14:00 |
| FOMC Economic Projections | - | - | 14:00 |
| Monthly Budget Statement | -284m | -205m | 14:00 |
| Fed Press Conference | - | - | 14:30 |
- ADP employment surged to 4,750, beating consensus and prior readings, signaling robust private-sector hiring that bolsters Fed easing bets.
- US-China trade tensions escalated with new tariffs, pressuring global supply chains and commodity prices amid geopolitical shifts.
- Markets traded calmly with VIX at 17.31, as equities held steady and bond yields ticked up on inflation vigilance.
Yesterday's Recap
ADP employment change beat expectations at 4,750, surpassing the previous -13,500 and supporting labor market resilience that eased rate cut urgency.
JOLTs job openings rose to 7,658,000 and 7,670,000, exceeding consensus of 7,200,000 and prior 7,227,000, indicating persistent labor demand amid easing pressures.
API weekly crude oil stocks drew down by 4,800,000 barrels versus prior -2,480,000, signaling supply tightness that lifted oil prices.
Markets remained calm with S&P 500 at 6,865.10, Nasdaq at 23,576.49, and VIX at 17.31, while bond yields edged higher to 3.63% (2-year) and 4.20% (10-year), FX stabilized with EUR/USD at 1.1635 and GBP/USD at 1.331, and commodities like WTI oil at $58.88 and gold at $4,194.24 saw minor fluctuations. (cont...)
