| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,909.20 | +0.64% |
| Nasdaq | 23,654.16 | +0.33% |
| Spot VIX | 16.12 | +2.22% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.55 | -1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.14 | -1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1717 | +0.19% |
| USD/JPY | 155.77 | -0.10% |
| GBP/USD | 1.338 | -0.01% |
| WTI Oil | 58.25 | -1.07% |
| Gold | 4,215.09 | -0.25% |
| Bitcoin | 90,281.62 | -1.90% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.32 | - | 6.33 |
| Employment Cost - Benefits Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.70 | - | 0.80 |
| Employment Cost - Wages Quarter-over-Quarter | 1 | - | 0.80 |
| Employment Cost Index Quarter-over-Quarter | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | 574,000 | -2.3m | -1.8m |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 4.5m | 2.8m | 6.4m |
| Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| FOMC Economic Projections | - | - | - |
| Monthly Budget Statement | -284m | -205m | -173m |
| Fed Press Conference | - | - | - |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -59.6m | -63.3m | 08:30 |
| Exports Level | 280.8m | - | 08:30 |
| Imports Level | 340.4m | - | 08:30 |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 191,000 | 220,000 | 08:30 |
| Federal Reserve Balance Sheet | 6540m | - | 16:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Paulson | - | - | 08:00 |
| Fed Hammack Speech | - | - | 08:30 |
| Fed Goolsbee Speech | - | - | 10:35 |
Employment costs rose 0.8% QoQ for benefits and wages, beating prior readings, while the index missed consensus at 0.8% versus 0.9%. EIA crude inventories drew 1.8M barrels, less than 2.3M expected, with gasoline stocks building 6.4M versus 2.8M. Fed cut rates in 9-3 vote, Powell highlighting labor softening and tariff inflation peaks in Q1, projecting one 2026 cut. Equities gained, S&P 500 up 0.67% to 6,886.68, VIX at 16.12. Bond yields fell, 2-year to 3.55% and 10-year to 4.14%, USD weakening against EUR to 1.1717 and JPY to 155.77. Commodities held steady, WTI oil at 58.25, gold at 4,215.09, bitcoin at 90,281.62.
Trade balance expected at -$63.3B versus -$59.6B prior, with exports at 280.8B and imports at 340.4B at 8:30am. Weekly jobless claims forecast at 220K versus 191K previous. Fed speeches from Paulson at 8am, Hammack at 8:30am, Goolsbee at 10:35am may refine cut timing. Federal Reserve balance sheet update at 4:30pm. (cont...)
Global debt reaches 310% of GDP, risking refinancing crunches as rates rise and emerging markets face dollar pressures. India's old-economy capex surge hedges against US AI euphoria, with trade deal nearing March amid weaker rupee benefits.
In cutting cycle, wage data beats push for faster cuts, but FOMC splits favor slower pace with hawkish dissent citing tariff inflation. Powell stresses data dependence, projecting fewer 2026 reductions. Dovish tilt leans toward more cuts if labor data weakens, balancing growth stability. Consensus sees steady easing, monitoring geopolitical impacts.