| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,925.90 | +0.24% |
| Nasdaq | 23,593.85 | -0.25% |
| Spot VIX | 15.14 | +1.95% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.55 | -1 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.17 | +1 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1723 | -0.15% |
| USD/JPY | 155.97 | +0.24% |
| GBP/USD | 1.337 | -0.18% |
| WTI Oil | 58.46 | +0.36% |
| Gold | 4,333.60 | +1.25% |
| Bitcoin | 92,397.68 | -0.15% |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Balance | -59.3m | -63.3m | -52.8m |
| Exports Level | 280.9m | - | 289.3m |
| Imports Level | 340.2m | - | 342.1m |
| Weekly Jobless Claims | 192,000 | 220,000 | 236,000 |
| Federal Reserve Balance Sheet | 6540m | - | 6540m |
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speech by Fed's Paulson | - | - | 08:00 |
| Fed Hammack Speech | - | - | 08:30 |
| Fed Goolsbee Speech | - | - | 10:35 |
Equities closed mixed, with S&P 500 at 6925.90 and Nasdaq at 23593.85, reflecting subdued volatility as investors digested the Fed's recent cut. Bond yields held steady at 3.55% for 2-year and 4.17% for 10-year, amid easing inflation concerns. FX stabilized, with EUR/USD at 1.1723 and GBP/USD at 1.337, while USD/JPY ticked to 155.97 on balanced global flows. Commodities edged higher, WTI oil at $58.46 and gold at $4333.60, supported by IEA supply cuts, while bitcoin rose to $92397.68 on renewed interest. Economic data showed the trade deficit narrowing to $52.8B versus $59.3B expected, exports up to $289.3B and imports to $342.1B, while jobless claims beat at 236K versus 220K consensus. (cont...)
Fed's Paulson speaks at 08:00, potentially refining views on inflation and growth post-recent cut. Hammack's speech at 08:30 may address labor market trends amid rising claims. Goolsbee's remarks at 10:35 could signal the pace of future rate adjustments.
AI investments are surging to offset tariff impacts, with US GDP growth expected at 1.8% in 2025, cushioning global slowdowns. UK economy contracted 0.1% in October, boosting Bank of England cut expectations. Russian oil exports fell sharply due to sanctions, pushing prices to four-year lows and straining budgets.
In the cutting cycle, mixed data like narrower trade deficits and higher jobless claims lean toward slower cuts, favoring fewer reductions in 2025 to monitor labor cooling. Recent Fed speeches emphasize data dependence, with Powell projecting only one 2026 cut amid tariff inflation risks. Dovish tilt supports more easing if economic weakness persists, balancing growth stability. Markets price steady cuts, watching for shifts toward a pause if geopolitical tensions ease.