US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Empire Slump Signals
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,841.50 | -0.15% |
| Nasdaq | 23,057.41 | -0.59% |
| Spot VIX | 17.07 | +3.45% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.52 | 0 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.18 | 0 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1755 | +0.03% |
| USD/JPY | 154.87 | -0.24% |
| GBP/USD | 1.342 | +0.32% |
| WTI Oil | 57.44 | -0.28% |
| Gold | 4,274.90 | -0.73% |
| Bitcoin | 87,124.27 | +0.82% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 18.70 | 10 | -3.90 |
| Speech by Fed's Miran | - | - | - |
| NAHB Housing Market Index | 38 | 38 | 39 |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | - |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 4,750 | - | 08:15 |
| Payroll Jobs Growth | 119,000 | - | 08:30 |
| Payroll Jobs Growth | - | 50,000 | 08:30 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.20 | 0.10 | 08:30 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.40 | 4.40 | 08:30 |
| Monthly Wage Growth | 0.20 | - | 08:30 |
| Monthly Wage Growth | - | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Annual Wage Growth | 3.80 | - | 08:30 |
| Annual Wage Growth | - | - | 08:30 |
| Labor Force Participation | - | - | 08:30 |
- NY Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged to -3.90, far below expectations, highlighting manufacturing weakness amid global trade tensions.
- Upcoming US payrolls data at 8:30am may confirm labor cooling, potentially bolstering Fed cut bets.
- Geopolitical risks from Ukraine proxy war elevate commodity volatility, with oil steady but gold surging on safe-haven demand.
Yesterday's Recap
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index tumbled to -3.90 from 18.70 previously, missing consensus of 10 and signaling contraction in regional manufacturing.
The NAHB Housing Market Index edged up to 39 from 38, meeting expectations and reflecting modest housing optimism.
Fed speeches by Miran and Williams emphasized data-dependent easing, noting persistent inflation amid labor softening.
Markets traded calmly with VIX at 17.07, equities stable at S&P 500 6841.50 and Nasdaq 23057.41.
Bonds yielded 2-year at 3.52% and 10-year at 4.18%, FX steady with EUR/USD at 1.1755 and USD/JPY at 154.87, commodities holding with WTI at 57.44 and gold at 4274.90, bitcoin at 87124.27.
The Day Ahead
ADP Employment Change at 08:15 is expected at consensus levels versus prior 4750, gauging private-sector hiring trends.
Payroll Jobs Growth at 08:30 projected at 50,000 versus 119,000 previous, alongside Unemployment Rate at 4.4% and wage data, may sway Fed easing outlook.
Retail Sales at 08:30 expected at 0.1% m/m versus 0.2% prior, will assess consumer spending momentum. (cont...)
