US Macro Daily(Beta Mode)
Labor Weakens Amid Tariffs
| Prior Close | ||
|---|---|---|
| Asset | Level | Days Change |
| S&P 500 | 6,798.40 | -0.28% |
| Nasdaq | 23,111.46 | +0.23% |
| Spot VIX | 16.25 | -1.40% |
| 2 Year Bond Yield | 3.52 | +2 bps |
| 10 Year Bond Yield | 4.18 | +3 bps |
| EUR/USD | 1.1715 | -0.28% |
| USD/JPY | 155.53 | +0.47% |
| GBP/USD | 1.333 | -0.71% |
| WTI Oil | 56.82 | -1.08% |
| Gold | 4,316.74 | +0.31% |
| Bitcoin | 86,762.10 | -1.24% |
Prior Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP Employment Change Weekly | 2,750 | - | 16,250 |
| Payroll Jobs Growth | 108,000 | - | -105,000 |
| Payroll Jobs Growth | -105,000 | 50,000 | 64,000 |
| Retail Sales Month-over-Month | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0 |
| Headline Unemployment Rate | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| Monthly Wage Growth | 0.20 | - | 0.40 |
| Monthly Wage Growth | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| Annual Wage Growth | 3.70 | - | 3.70 |
| Annual Wage Growth | 3.70 | - | 3.50 |
| Labor Force Participation | 62.40 | - | 62.50 |
Today's Economic Events
| Data | Prior | Cons | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 6.33 | - | 07:00 |
| Speech by Fed's Waller | - | - | 08:15 |
| Speech by Fed's Williams | - | - | 09:05 |
| EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventory | -1.8m | -1.1m | 10:30 |
| EIA Weekly Gasoline Inventory | 6.4m | 2.1m | 10:30 |
| Speech by Fed's Bostic | - | - | 12:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | - | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Core Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | - | 3 | 08:30 |
| Inflation Rate Month-over-Month | - | 0.30 | 08:30 |
| Inflation Rate Year-over-Year | - | 3 | 08:30 |
- Payrolls added 64K jobs in November, below expectations, with unemployment rising to 4.6%, signaling labor market cooling amid tariff pressures.
- Retail sales stalled at 0% month-over-month, missing forecasts and reflecting consumer caution in a stagnant economy.
- Fed speeches today may clarify cut timing as data leans toward slower easing to avoid over-tightening.
Yesterday's Recap
Payroll jobs growth was 64K, below consensus of 50K and the prior 119K, while unemployment ticked up to 4.6% from 4.4%, highlighting a stagnant labor market.
Retail sales were flat at 0% m/m versus expected 0.1%, with wage growth steady at 3.7% annually, underscoring consumer strain from tariffs.
ADP employment surged to 162.5K from prior levels, beating expectations and adding to mixed signals on hiring.
Markets traded calmly with VIX at 16.25, equities stable at S&P 500 6798.40 and Nasdaq 23111.46, as investors awaited Fed guidance.
The Day Ahead
MBA 30-year mortgage rate at 7am may reveal housing market trends amid labor softness.
Fed's Waller speaks at 8:15am, potentially discussing rate cut pace in the easing cycle.
Williams' remarks at 9:05am could address inflation outlook, while Bostic at 12:30pm may refine labor market views.
EIA crude inventories at 10:30am expected to show draws, impacting oil prices.
Core CPI at 8:30am projected at 0.3% m/m, with year-over-year at 3%, key for Fed decisions. (cont...)
